India's GDP growth to miss government estimates, India Ratings say

India Ratings and Research has said that the gross domestic product (GDP) figures for the current fiscal are likely to be 7.3% as against 7.4% projected by the Central Statistics Office (CSO). 

The ratings firm said, "Private final consumption expenditure and government final consumption expenditure to grow a tad lower than the advanced estimate. Investment growth, however, is likely to match CSO’s advanced estimate for FY15 and grow at 5.1%." 

It further said that the government's expenditure to grow slower, at 9.6% as against the advanced estimates of 10% for FY15. It said, "To achieve 10.0% growth in FY15, the government expenditure in 4QFY15 has to grow at 10.8%. This looks unlikely in view of the fiscal consolidation path followed by central and state governments."

On the issue of industrial production, India Ratings said, "Although IIP (general) grew at its fastest pace in last three fiscals; India Ratings expects industrial sector growth to fall short of CSO’s advance estimates of 5.9%."

The agency said that the private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) grew by 5.4% in the first three quarters of last fiscal and the advance estimate is pegged at 7.1% for FY15. "If PFCE has to match advance estimates, it has to grow at 11.8% in 4QFY15, a daunting task," it said.