The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also warned about El Nino during its first bi-monthly monetary policy earlier this month and said that the future course of policy action will have to take into account the amount of rainfall the country receives and El Nino's development this year.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that El Nino conditions are likely to persist during Monsoon season causing rainfall to be below normal.
IMD said that the latest forecast forecast indicates El Nino conditions are likely to persist during the southwest monsoon season. It said, "As the extreme sea surface temperature conditions over Pacific and Indian Oceans particularly ENSO conditions over Pacific (El Nino or La Nina) are known to have strong influence on the Indian summer monsoon, IMD is carefully monitoring the sea surface conditions over Pacific and Indian oceans."
This is an experimental forecast by the IMD based on coupled dynamic model forecasting system. The model suggests, "the monsoon rainfall during the 2015 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 91± 5% of long period model average (LPMA)."
According to IMD, rainfall between 90-96% of LPMA is classified as "below normal."
IMD further said that there are 33% chances that rainfall will be deficient this Monsoon, i.e. below 90%.
This is going to have an impact on food prices in India as agriculture is still largely dependent on rainfall.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has also warned about El Nino during its first bi-monthly monetary policy earlier this month and said that the future course of policy action will have to take into account the amount of rainfall the country receives and El Nino's development this year.
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