China will decide the future of electric cars market, say experts

Electric cars have their highest-profile prophet in US-based entrepreneur Elon Musk and their widest adoption in Norway, but China's vast auto market will decide their worldwide future, experts say.

Top global brands will be fighting it out to electrify buyers at China's premier car show opening on Monday in Beijing.

The country is already the world's largest auto market and took the number one spot for electric models last year, with some 247,000 "zero emission" cars sold -- quadruple the number in 2014 -- according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

So far only around one percent of cars owned in China are electric, but authorities are pushing them as a potential solution to the country's crippling air pollution health crisis.

The central government gives buyers subsidies of up to 55,000 yuan ($8,500) for each car and electric vehicles are exempt from traffic restrictions in China's congested major cities.

While electric cars are becoming more popular worldwide, particularly high-end brands like Tesla, their hefty price tags and restricted driving range mean they are still only a niche market.

Their evolution has been mainly state-subsidised, as in Norway, which has the world's highest penetration at 17 percent of new sales in 2015.

But experts say winning even a small chunk of Chinese sales -- which totalled 24.6 million last year -- could be a game-changer for electric cars.

"Given the size of the market, it would be a powerful driver" at a global level, Flavien Neuvy, auto expert at Observatoire Cetelem, told AFP.

Jean-Francois Belorgey, an expert with consultancy EY, predicted that by 2020, up to 750,000 electric cars will be sold in China every year.

"China is perhaps the one place in the world where the automobile industry can achieve the economy of scale needed to bring down costs," he said.