Do you see a heightened consciousness in the West that the world is changing?
The West is aware of China, and of the Middle East, but I don’t think it’s aware of the linkages between the two. It misses out on that because the dialogue just doesn’t take place on the front pages of the major newspapers. Sitting in New York, it’s easy see how China impacts the US, but it’s very difficult to see how China impacts the Middle East.
The Arab-Chinese relationship isn’t entirely trouble-free. What are the dynamics that are impeding it?
One of the major problems is that China’s exports to the Middle East have surged in the last decade, and China has overtaken the US as the largest supplier to the Middle East. That’s the sort of statistics that often gets people excited, but there is often a downside; there are factory closures across the Middle East as a result of China’s exports to the region. The Middle East has a major unemployment problem: some 60% of the region’s population is under age 30, and unemployment rates are upwards of 30%. Factory closures worsen social instability in the region.
How are Arab governments responding to this?
We’ve seen the Syrian government impose tariffs on Chinese exports to Syria. It’s still early days, so we’re yet to see a significant worsening in relations.
At the political level, how did the Arab world respond to the riots in Xinjiang in southwest China?
There was almost no coverage of the Xinjiang events in the Arab media.
How do you account for that?
During that period (in early July), there were car bombings in Iraq, unrest in Gaza. Events in Xinjiang are big news in this region, but not so much in the Middle East. Second, there’s recognition that the Uighurs (the Turkic-speaking community of Xinjiang) are not ‘Arabs’. To them the ethnic card is more important than the religious card. Also, a lot of governments in the Middle East face the same problems of separatism, so they didn’t play it up. The Syrian government was even supportive of China, recognising that its own Kurdish minority population represents the same risk.
So far, China has remained non-interventionist in geopolitical disputes, but can it continue to sit on the sidelines when it “rules the world”?
I don’t think it can. Increasingly, it will be a problem for many of these emerging markets. Initially it was all very nice to say that China is evidence that the East is rising and the West is falling. But the problem is that China’s rise is not a net gain for everyone. And as exports to the Middle East prove, it can sometimes be a net loss.
At some point, for instance, if there are serious job losses in not just the Middle east but also in India, these emerging market governments will retaliate.
At the same time, there’s growing pressure (on China). For instance, there was an editorial in a Syrian newspaper the other day that linked China’s ownership of US Treasury debts to its rise and the fact that it would respond poorly to US criticism of events in Xinjiang by dumping them. That’s recognition that China is a major player and has leverage over the US. And increasingly, these governments will turn to China during periods of stress or conflicts with the West, and say, ‘What are you going to do about it?’
China recently announced it was launching an Arabic-language channel that will parallel Al Jazeera. Will it win hearts and minds in the Arab world?
I don’t think the channel itself will receive many viewers. But it will emphasise that there is respect for the Arab culture insofar as there are Arabic-speaking Chinese anchors. And that is unprecedented.
The Arab media space is also very competitive. There’s also the risk that in times of crises in the region, say, when there’s fighting Gaza, it may flag the idea that China is not willing to take a position. Those are potential strains going forward.
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