‘Crazy to think human activity impacts climate’

S Fred Singer, leading US atmospheric physicist, coauthored a report, Climate Change Reconsidered, in June 2009, which challenged the scientific basis that global warming is either man-made or would have harmful effects. On his first visit to India, the 85-year-old Singer, who is professor emeritus of environmental science at University of Virginia, lights up the issue which created an uproar in December in Copenhagen, in an interview with DNA. Excerpts.

To what extent is human activity responsible for changing climate?
In the 1900s, the climate warmed and cooled. The sun, changes in the earth’s orbit, continental drift caused it. It’s plausible that climate change in 20th century was natural. It’s also plausible that the changes were caused by humans. Carbon dioxide (CO2) has increased by 35% over the last 150 years. However, it’s (contribution) is only minute compared to natural causes. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is 90-99% sure that the cause of 20th century warming is human activity. Many, including me, disagree. We believe causes are natural.

Who can we say is right?
Look at the evidence. Data does not support IPCC. Water vapour is a greenhouse gas (GHG) and is much stronger than CO2. But IPCC dose not consider water vapour explicitly. We believe water vapour decreases the effect of CO2. When oceans warm due to CO2, more vapourisation occurs, clouds form and they keep sunlight from reaching the earth. So less warming…

Why then is CO2 portrayed as the chief culprit of climate change?
Methane (CH4) is the next most important greenhouse gas (GHG). Cattle grazing increases CH4 in atmosphere. For political reasons, people talk only about CO2 as it’s emitted due to industrial factors, while CH4 is due to grazing.

How much of a bearing does the sun have on climate?
In 1700, sun spots disappeared and temperature on earth became low, ice formed. In EU, there were cold summers, very cold winters, and no vegetation, leading to famine. Several people died from diseases. 1,000 years ago, there was medieval warming, leading to crops forming at the southern tip of Greenland. The sun caused it. 20,000 years ago, ice age reached its coldest point. 18,000 years ago, it started to warm suddenly. Theory says it’s due to changes in earth’s orbit. There have been 17 ice ages, each lasting 1,00,000 years. Between each ice age, a warm inter glacial period existed lasting 10,000 years. It’s nothing to do with human activity.

There is strong apprehension that sea levels would increase tremendously...
An 18 cm rise in the sea level per century has been the norm for over 3,000 years and this will continue, no matter what. This century also, sea level will rise by 18 cm. Human activity will have zero effect.

There is also apprehension that small islands would drown due to climate change?
Many small islands are made out of coral which keeps up with the sea level. If the sea rises, coral grows and it never gets buried by the sea.

 So what is Copenhagen all about then?
Oh it’s a political event. Development is a must for which we need cheap energy. Schemes to control CO2 will make energy expensive. Emission cuts make energy very expensive, which only the rich can afford. You know, total emissions of CO2 have gone up in US, EU. In 1997, during the Kyoto Protocol, they promised to reduce emission by 5%. But emission is only going up. They have no intention of reducing it.  

Copenhagen is a very bad idea. Another bad idea is solar energy. It will only survive due to subsidies from the governments. In Rajasthan and desert areas, solar energy makes sense. But not everywhere.

So should the common man worry about climate?
No need for any worry. Climate is not a problem. It’s crazy to think that human activity can impact global climate. The big problem to worry about is politicians. Politicians are afraid of climate change. They bring policies which will make energy costly and stop economic growth.