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| Edited By: Gargi Gupta |Source: DNA |Updated: Mar 22, 2018, 02:03 AM IST
On India, my line is very clear -- this is the country that has consistently disappointed the optimists and the pessimists. The reforms that the Modi government has carried out qualify among that. The great expectations we had about what the government could do in the first couple of years haven't materialised. Modi had the political capital to do whatever he wanted. But there's been no out-of-the-box thinking. It's been all incremental in nature.
The one success that the government can claim is FDI. There's undoubtedly been a surge.
We haven't seen any evidence of it as yet. On the ground, there's been no pick up in private investment and manufacturing also is not doing that well in India. It may happen. Perhaps it's too early, or perhaps we've come to the party too late. Having said that, it's a tough environment globally for exports and manufacturing led exports. Of course, Vietnam, Bangladesh are still seeing (growth).
I think it's a personality issue rather than a policy issue. The policy issues are there - there are obviously differences about his interest rate policy - but more than I think it's a personality issue. Which is that I think it's very difficult for people in government to have such a larger than life persona, that's the message for them.
In India, we've begun to believe the talk that we're growing at 7.5-8%, what's the problem? We're fine. I don't believe in that number. I don't think they're doing anything to fudge it but I feel it's incompetence the way the new methodology is being calculated. We've seen incremental reforms, that's the nature of this country. Of course, at a time the global economy is doing so poorly, even if we do 5-6% we're not doing too badly. It's just that we're deluding ourselves by thinking we're booming at 7-8%.
On India, I'm optimist that we have a growing population at a time the world's population growth rate is slowing down. Our debt seems to have stabilised after a long time. I do feel good that we have a competitive currency now and the FDI success story is a reflection of that. Even Indians who were taking a lot of money out of the country have stopped doing that in the great measure.
The expectations among the external community about India are very high now. Foreign investors have put in a lot of money, they think India's the next thing. But this external perception is part of the problem, as I see.
