The foremost challenge for all stakeholders is keeping their relevance to digital audience and retaining revenue streams, feels Venkatesh S, EVP, Director Intelligence, Magna Global, India. And he is sure it’s mobile internet that has a lot going for it, and will soon get past desktop internet.
The annual forecast made in December 2012 had your annual year-on-year growth forecast for India pegged at 8.7%. In June this year, it was revised to 7.8% which has been maintained in your year-ahead report. Since we haven’t yet closed December, do you think this growth of January-December 2013 will stay at 7.8%?
These are end-2013 estimates and we don’t foresee any extreme change in growth rates.
Any noteworthy changes in your estimate made in December 2012 and June 2013 to what it is now?
Newspaper and magazine growth rates have been revised downwards compared to December forecast and the growth rates are pretty the same as they were in June 2013.
By your estimates now, will India be among the Top 10 markets five years from now? In December 2012, your report said India would be among the Top 10 markets in 2017. That was not the case when the mid-2013 numbers. What is the status as of now?
Following a significant slowdown and given the current market environment, long-term forecast was revised downwards and is not in a hurry to be part of the Top 10 anytime soon. Currently, India is the 13th largest advertising market and is forecast to retain its position in 2018.
How does Indian ad spend compare with our neighbours, BRIC countries and internationally?
The ad spend/capita in APAC varies significantly from $558 in Australia to $2 in Pakistan. While India ad spend/capita is $5, its BRIC peers are way above -- China $29, Russia $67 and Brazil is on par with the global average of $84. India is slightly in the high growth potential zone.
Internet doesn’t seem to be growing at a significant pace – it continues to hover around 30-odd percent. Comments?
India has been growing at a phenomenal rate compared to the global average (+15.5%) and also within APAC (+22.4%). Having said this, mobile internet is promising and will overtake desktop internet. However, lots of questions need to be answered to see this medium unfold its potential.
What would you say is the contribution of mobile as against the whole of internet?
Mobile share to total internet is 7.9%.
And how does this compare with developed economies and BRIC countries?
While BRIC countries are averaging 9%, developed economy is 15%.
Last December, you had predicted a 4.2% growth in the magazine sector. That is now 2.3%. Do you think there is a trend out there and could magazines degrow even further?
A small base of loyalty is a major deterrent for magazine publishers and advertisers, though language magazines still hold ground locally. Staying relevant to digital audience and retaining revenue streams is a challenge.
Given an election year, shouldn’t we have seen a greater growth for newspapers?
In 2012, the category saw a lower single-digit growth rate. Our estimate for 2013, including political advertising, is 6% and 8.7% in 2014.
By arrangement with MxMIndia.com