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The markets witnessed a lower turnover week as commodity prices consolidated. The action was seen shifting to the equity markets as risk appetite expanded worldwide. The MCX week-on-week turnover was lower by 10% while the marketwide open interest was lower by 2% on the MCX. This week will be news driven and traders will watch the data emerging from the US and China keenly.

Agri-commodities
Chana has slid to a month-long support near the Rs 2,175 levels. Below this support, the counter can test the Rs 2,140 levels. Market internals indicate a 21% increase in open interest which shows fresh shorts being initiated.

Mentha oil has declined for the second week in a row as the Rs 550 level was violated and the bulls seemed to have surrendered their longs. Fresh buying may be contemplated only above the Rs 559 levels.

Potato has seen a breakout past the Rs 675 resistance and the same has been on steady volumes. The Rs 660 support must hold if the upthrust is to sustain. Hold existing longs and refrain from shorts. Market internals indicate a 1% increase in turnover and a 9% increase in open interest.

Refined soya oil has seen an “inside” formation. These are indicators of a slide in the markets and may test the Rs 435 levels.

Metals
Aluminium has reacted to form an “inside” formation on the weekly chart. These are indications of a bigger move in the offing in the coming week/s. A breakout past the Rs 74 level will imply bullishness and a decline below Rs 67 will have bearish implications. Market internals indicate a 27% increase in turnover and an 18% increase in open interest.

Copper has extended its dream rally and buying is suggested above Rs 210 only. Market internals indicate a 1% increase in turnover and a 5% increase in open interest.
Gold remains enmeshed in a downward channel and will be overcome only above the Rs 15,500 levels if the upthrust is onhigher volumes. A decline below Rs 15,000 may see a test of Rs 14,600 levels.Nickel is underperforming its peers. A decline below the Rs 464 level support will be a sign of absolute caution for the bulls and may invite fresh shorts.

Silver has fallen from Rs 23,000-mark. It is critical that a breakout appears above this threshold for an upmove. The Rs 21,400 level will need watching as a support, below which the bears may attempt aggression.

Zinc has performed in tandem with copper. Upmoves may run into resistance closer to the Rs 70-mark. Market internals indicate a 19% increase in turnover and an 11% decline in open interest.

Energy
CER has seen a tremendous surge in turnover on a small base and a significant jump in open interest as well. A breakout past the Rs 765 levels will see an upthrust.

Crude oil has settled in the lower end of the weekly range after an initial rally. The bulls need to defend the Rs 2,600 levels to remain in command. Market internals indicate a 1% increase in turnover and a 16% increase in open interest.

Natural gas has seen an abortive rally that fizzled out in latter half of the week. The Rs 184 level will be the test for the bulls. Fresh buying is justified only above the Rs 225 levels.