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ShareIn a matter of days, the Parliament will convene to approve, among other legislative business, -- subject to time availability and normal functioning of both the Houses sans disruptions -- the vote-on-account.
Is this move to postpone the regular budget wise or warranted on the reasoning that general elections are due shortly. Why foreclose the options for the next government in framing its own fiscal policy blueprint by unveiling one right now?
Let us first clear the air about what a vote-on-account budget is. Under our Constitution, the government cannot spend even a rupee without the nod of the parliament.
A vote-on - account would ensure that funds would be at its disposal to run the various departments as otherwise, there would be an administrative paralysis. Generally, a vote-on-account is sought for three months, to be replaced by the regular budget.
It also needs to be stated that, even when the fiscal statement is unveiled on schedule - that is, on the last day of February - the government seeks the sanction of the Parliament to okay a vote-on-account as the final passage of the budget usually takes place in May.
But, this time around, this move is prompted by the fact that a fresh mandate from the people as the present coalition at the Centre has reached the fag end of its five-year term.
However, there is no bar whatsoever on the government from presenting a full-fledged budget now. If the money bill does not muster the support of the Lok Sabha, the government falls. This is not such a fearsome prospect as in any case date with the hustings is near.
If the budget obtains parliamentary sanction, it is open to the new government to change it to suit its programmes and priorities. The 2008-09 Budget is now a pale shadow of former self with the supplementary demands for grants completely transforming its expenditure profile and cuts in indirect taxes making inroads in the original tax revenue projections.
But the objection to delaying the budget for 2009-10 in view of the looming general elections is more basic. Exactly a decade ago, the then finance minister, Yashwant Sinha, presented the budget on schedule and on April 17, 1999, the Vajpayee government lost the no-confidence motion by one vote.
The fiscal policy was in a limbo and, to avert a financial crisis, the president KR Narayanan stepped in and secured the approval of Parliament for that year's budget. Of course, there was no debate, scrutiny or even any amendments.
However, the saving grace was that, at least there was a budget that could be voted upon, thanks to the proactive role of the president. This time around, what if the elections do not productive a decisive mandate.
This is not a wishful thinking. In his communication to the president, Pratibha Patil, the chief election commissioner had observed in a different context that, "...from the days of dominance of a single party, we have moved away to a rule by a coalition of parties and with more and more regional parties playing a national role. In such an increasingly fragmented polity, when multi-party coalitions, in government as well as in opposition, are becoming the order of the day...".
So, it is more than possible, indeed probable, that, post elections, hectic political horse-trading would take place and a coalition government is set to take office. Whether this government will be stable is open to question.
Even if a rickety coalition is in place, it will labour under pressure to chalk out a fiscal policy and, reflecting the ideological predilections of the constituents, it is axiomatic that the budget will be a congeries of compromises.
And, what if there is a fractured verdict? Budget-making will be delayed and even difficult. Fiscal logjam will ensue and the consequences will be grave.
When the government is otherwise behaving as though it is fully in charge - it is - why should duck the issue of presenting a regular budget, and citing elections, seek Parliament's approval before the session ends.
The government is on its last legs anyway if it loses but if it secures enough votes, at least the fiscal framework for the next fiscal would be ready even if government-making runs into trouble.
