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Despite above-average rainfall, the kharif output is likely to miss targets

The south-west monsoon season has now formally come to an end - though its total withdrawal from the Indian subcontinent has been somewhat delayed - with what may be termed a generally good performance in terms of quantum of precipitation and its spatial spread.

But, kharif outlook appears to be rather mixed.

Overall foodgrain production during the kharif 2007 is expected to be lower than the target of 114.2 million tonnes to the tune of two million tonnes, based on the first advance estimate of the Union ministry of agriculture.

The harvest of oilseeds is projected at only 16.13 million tonnes - a shortfall of more than two million tonnes in relation to the target of 18.5 million tonnes.

Cotton and sugarcane have fared well and a record output is envisaged and the targets may be bettered in respect of both.

However, as compared to the kharif 2006, the picture appears to be more rosy on the farm front. While the total kharif food crop outurn is expected to be some two million tonnes higher than the preceding year’s 110.52 million tonnes - and a mark-up is possible in the case of coarse cereals and pulses this season - for rice, the principal crop, the picture is one of stagnation with the size of the harvest pegged at 80 million tonnes.

Cash crops are slated to fare well this kharif with an increase in production confidently predicted for oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane.

Based on three important criteria - the number of subdivisions where the rainfall has been excess or normal in relation to the long-period average, the number of districts that have reported good rains and the overall amount of rainfall in relation to what is normally expected, going by the past pattern - the progress of the monsoon during the just-concluded season is among the best during the past decade and broadly paralleled the pattern it had followed in 2003, which was the previous year of exceptionally good performance.

During the current spell, as many as 30 of the 36 meteorological subdivisions recorded normal or excessive rains.

This was better than its showing during 2006, though in 2003, this number stood at 33. Again, of the 500 and odd districts, 72% of them were blessed with copious showers- far higher than the proportion of 60%in 2006, but lower than the 77%in 2003.

In absolute terms, as many as 164 districts had received excess rains while 205 were favoured with normal rainfall during the four months ending September 2007. Compared to the long-period average of 892.2 mm of rainfall, during the June-September 2007 period, the actual precipitation was of the order of 936.9 mm, or 105% of the normal.

This is distinctly better than 99% during 2006 and on par with what was evident in 2003.

Aberrant monsoon was certainly not the case during 2007. This is reflected in the fact that, in both June and September, the amount of rainfall was 19% and 18% more than the normal for these months while the deficiency was just 3% in relation to the long -period average for that month in July and it was a mere 1% in August.

Given the continental dimensions of India, it is too much to expect an uniformally good monsoon across the breadth and length of the entire landmass.

Seen in perspective, its performance was satisfactory, if not above average.

Unfortunately, however, we could not fully exploit the nature’s bounty to achieve a leap-frog in our farm output as the setback in relation to the target set for kharif 2007 indicates; worse still, this season’s foodgrain harvest, reckoned at 112 million tonnes is less than the peak of 117 million tonnes reaped in 2003.

Since rain-fed agriculture is pervasive in our country - 50% of the cereals is cultivated without irrigation cover while the figure is much higher for pulses and oilseeds - and since it is unwise to rely on the monsoon to come to our rescue year after year, the farm strategy should focus on better watershed management, use of drought-resistant seeds, efficient use of critical farm inputs, accelerated tempo of investment and greater R&D thrust, not to mention the toningup of extension agencies so that success on the research front percolates to the field with minimum delay.

For our failure to step up agricultural production in a big way, monsoon 2007 is not to be faulted as the blame lies elsewhere.

The fear is that supply -side pressures may raise their ugly head during the current year due to the none-too-satisfactory trend in the output of food and commercial crops in recent years, including the on-going season; this may provide a grist to the mill of inflation in the ensuing months.