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ShareIn recent weeks, prices of pulses -- the common man's primary source of cheap protein -- have moved relentlessly upward.
In Delhi, tur is hovering around Rs 85 per kg compared to Rs 44 a year ago; in Kolkata, it is dearer by 81% at Rs.76, in Mumbai by 61% at Rs 74 and in Chennai by 98% at Rs 95.
In some markets, the retail rate had even pierced the Rs 100 per kg. mark for this pulse.
In urad and moong too, the spurt is substantial and in the case of masur dal, relatively modest.
In gram dal -- a rabi crop -- the undercurrent is firm despite an increase in production in the just concluded rabi season.
Though high prices are inherent in the skewed demand-supply equation, what we are witnessing is a serious development and stems from an unfavourable turn of events.
The harvest of pulses during kharif 2008 had suffered a serious setback, and the prospect is none-too-good in the current season, due to the erratic monsoon.
Imports, which have been a regular feature to beef up supplies, have run into rough weather due to depleted inventories in our traditional markets and international prices too are bullish.
To add to the woes, delays in port clearences are also reported as well as some hoarding in the hope that a further upswing in pulses may be in the offing.
A holistic view of the price situation can be had from the official wholesale price index for pulses.
For the seventh week in a row, the subgroup index for pulses has moved northward, and during the week ended July 25, the rise was to the tune of 1.8%.
Over the last week of March, this index has hardened by 13.1% and over the year by as much as 19.1%.
In the case of tur --- a kharif crop --- the rise was the maximum --- 33.6%% since March and 52.1% over the year ago.
The surge was also pronounced in respect of moong, urad and masur dal. Gram was an exception with a 2% decline over the year ago, though over end-March, its price was up by 2.9%.
The proximate cause for this flare-up is the lean crop during kharif 2008 in relation to kharif 2007.
In tur, output was down to 2.31 million tonnes from the preceding season's 3.08 million tonnes; in urad, the total crop including rabi, fell to 1.11 million tonnes from 1.46 million tonnes and in moong, the entire year's out-turn dipped to 1.01 million tonnes from 1.52 million tonnes.
Other kharif pulses too recorded a lower production of 0.87 million tonnes compared with 0.95 million tonnes. Overall, the harvest of kharif pulses was lower at 4.78 million tonnes than 6.40 million tonnes reaped in kharif 2007.
Since the crop outlook is slated to be bad in kharif 2009 in the face of rising demand and lagging supplies, the sentiment has turned bullish.
Imports, though short of total demand, usually beef up the availability to the extent of
2.5- 3 million tonnes annually. But, now, not enough pulses are available abroad while the prices are also on the high side. Unlike cereals, where official stocks are sizeable and adequate to take in stride a harvest setback, the story is different in regard to pulses.
In a larger sense, pulses have been a victim of neglect.
Relegated to marginal lands, and varietal breakthrough elusive, with minimal inputs and poor irrigation cover, production has languished in the face of rising demand.
The harvest is around 15 million tonnes now, not much different from what it was in the fifties; the share of pulses in total foodgrains production has plummeted to a mere 6% in 2008-09 from over 15% in 1960-61; the per capita availability --- that is, net production and net imports --- has fallen to as low as 35.5 grams per day in 2007 from a peak of 74.6 grams in 1959.
This is the average position of availability but the actual per capita consumption may be even less.
The nutritional norm is 43 grams per day. Given the vast inequalities in income and soaring prices, it can be safely inferred that, for millions, the intake of pulses is far less than this norm.
This in a country where the diet is predominantly vegetarian and where protein malnutrition is rampant.
Pulses, the affordable source of protein for the masses, are simply not affordable now.
But, the grim news is that, the worst is yet to come, because of the outlook for the kharif crop.
