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ShareIndustry -- long in the doldrums -- sprang a big surprise during June, with the growth rate of the representative index of industrial production accelerating to an impressive 7.8% from 5.4% a year ago.
On a month-on-month basis, the momentum had gathered pace considerably from 2.2% in May and 1.2% in April.
Sector-wise, all the three segments -- mining, manufacturing and electricity -- had put up a good show during the month.
Going by the use-based classification, an improved tempo of activity was evident in basic goods, capital goods and intermediate goods. But a mixed trend came to the fore in the consumer goods segment, with the durables faring exceptionally well but non-durables proving to be laggards.
Though it is tempting to interpret the latest numbers as evidence of a pick-up in demand, such an inference at this stage would be hasty.
The incremental growth during the first quarter in industrial production worked out to only 3.7% compared with last year's 5.3%.
This suggests that, for a full-fledged recovery, industry has to acquit itself even more creditably in the coming months than what it had achieved in June 2009.
A new factor -- the erratic monsoon, setback to kharif harvest and the resultant fall in rural incomes -- casts doubts on the sustainability of this performance.
Seen in isolation, industry had fared very well in during the third month of the current fiscal year. In mining, the growth rate had vaulted to 15.4% from 0.1%% a year ago and in power generation, to 8% from 2.6%.
In the case of manufacturing, the rate had quickened to 7.3% from 6.1%.
Similarly, a faster pace was noted in basic goods to 10.1%from 2.2%, in capital goods to 11.8% from 7.8% and in intermediate goods to 7.9% from 2.8%.
Consumer durables, too, had seen a pick-up in output to 15.5% from 4.6%.
In fact, during June, as many seven industry groups out of 17 at the two-digit level of classification, had shown a double-digit growth and two others had topped the seven per cent-mark.
These included such pivotal industries like basic metals and alloys, machinery and equipment and transport equipment and parts.
But, the industrial trends for the first three months of 2009-10 are not very encouraging, mainly because of the subdued level of production in April and May.
The growth rate of manufacturing had slackened to 3.2% from 5.8% last year; in capital goods and consumer goods as a whole, the tempo had flagged markedly.
In basic goods and intermediate goods, there was an acceleration of sorts in the rate of production.
Overall, industrial growth, at 3.7%, had lagged behind that notched up in the first quarter of 2008-09 by 160 basis points.
At the two-digit level, the picture is somewhat encouraging in the latest quarter, even though the number of industry groups showing a negative growth had increased to six from five a year ago.
But, industry groups with a growth rate of 8% and more has gone up to four from three while those with a growth rate of 0 to 5% has dropped to three from five.
The remaining four industry groups in this quarter of both these years had reported a rise in the range of 5% to 7.9%.
