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Factory output as measured by the representative index of industrial production spurted by a stunning 16.7% in January, powered largely by manufacturing and, within this group, by a stellar show put up by capital goods, intermediate goods and consumer durables, and buttressed by a robust recovery in the basic goods segment.

That industry is staging a recovery this fiscal from the ill effects of the slowdown that had persisted for almost eight quarters — from the beginning of 2007-08 to the end of 2008-09 — was never in doubt; but the speed and spread of this turnaround was remarkable.

The average increase in the IIP was 3.8% in the first quarter of 2009-10, which had accelerated to 9.0% in the second quarter and further to 10.6% in the third quarter, climaxing in the hefty 16.7% surge in the first month of the final quarter.

This growth is also broad-based. The heavyweight in the index, manufacturing, surged 17.9% in January; even if the effect of the depressed base a year ago is factored in, this jump is remarkable. In mining and power generation, too, the performance was respectable during this month, with production in the former higher by nearly 15% and in the latter by 6% on a year-on-year basis.

The spectacular growth story is brought home by the phenomenal leap of 56.2% in the production of capital goods and of 31.6% in consumer durables — the main focus of fiscal and monetary stimulus packages.

The smart pick-up in intermediate goods from (-7.2%) to 21.3% over the 12-month period ending January 2010 also suggests that the momentum of industrial growth may be sustained in the near-term at least. Basic goods sector has fared well during the month, with output registering a double-digit rate of growth.

Consumer goods, as a whole, is still a laggard with an incremental increase of a mere 4.2% during January 2010, mainly because the consumer non-durables continues to be on a downhill path; in the latest month, output was even lower than what it was a year ago by over 3%.

With industrial revival firmly underway during this year, the average growth rate of IIP was of the order of 9.6% during the April-January period; this is almost treble of what it was during the similar period of 2008-09 - 3.3%.

In mining and manufacturing, the average growth rate now hovers around 10%, while in power generation, the growth rate has more than doubled to 5.7%.

As per the use-based classification of the index, the average growth rate during the first 10 months of the current fiscal has been of a double-digit order in capital goods, intermediate goods and the consumer durables segment of the consumer goods sector; in basics goods too, the record this year is satisfactory.

Consumer goods as a whole, is still an underperformer, with the average growth thus far, at 6.9%, only a shade higher than 5.8% recorded during the same period of 2008-09.

The encouraging nature of the trend in industrial production during the current year is evident from the fact that, of the 17 industry groups at the two-digit level of classification, the number of industry groups that have registered a negative growth rate, has declined to 3 in January 2010 from 12 during the same month of 2009 while the number of industry groups where the output has increased by 8% or more has swelled to 10 from 2.

For the April-January period of 2009-10 also, the picture is broadly similar - number of industry groups with a negative growth down to 3 from 7 a year ago but that recording a rise of 8% or more jumping to 9 from 2.