His journey ahead till the 2014 general election is going to be a turbulent one given the crowded schedule of difficult assembly polls.
The humiliating defeat in Uttar Pradesh may have signalled only the beginning of Congress general secretary Rahul Gandhi’s troubles. His journey ahead till the 2014 general election is going to be a turbulent one given the crowded schedule of difficult assembly polls in which the Congress will be expected to do well.
Maybe, he will not put in the same kind of herculean effort when the polls come up in Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat at the end of this year. But with Sonia Gandhi ailing, Rahul Gandhi’s responsibilities in the party hierarchy are not going to diminish. Lending his face to the party’s campaign in any of these elections is fraught with risks as the party structure is not in good shape in most of these states.
In Gujarat, the Congress will be up against what is undoubtedly a one-man show. Chief minister Narendra Modi has warded off adversaries in his party to emerge as an unchallenged patriarch. His politics has taken a decisive turn towards development and senior Congress leaders in the state have been completely dwarfed by his stature. There is nothing on the ground to suggest that the popular mood has swung away from Modi.
In Himachal Pradesh, Prem Kumar Dhumal has been running a relatively scandal-free government. True, his faction-ridden state unit has given him enough anxiety with a small section walking out and forming the Himachal Lokhit Party but their exit hasn’t really hurt him politically. On the other hand, the Congress remains a divided camp in the hill state with functionaries owing allegiance to either veteran Virbhadra Singh or Union commerce minister Anand Sharma.
Both Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh have governments that are difficult to dislodge. In Karnataka, where the DV Sadananda Gowda government is expected to be in office till early 2013, the BJP may face strong anti-incumbency. Even then, the vote against the BJP would be split with the JD(S) claiming a significant share now that the party appears to have been somewhat resuscitated by its leader HD Kumaraswamy.
In Congress circles in Delhi, there is open admission that there are too many “useless” central leaders from Karnataka in Delhi. The Mangalore region alone has contributed three senior functionaries —Veerappa Moily, BK Hariprasad and Oscar Fernandes — none of whom have much of a mass-base in their home state. With a pre-poll alliance between JD(S) and Congress unlikely, BJP stands a better chance only if BS Yeddyurappa is allowed to lead the party’s electioneering. His Lingayat charm may still work magic for the saffron outfit.
Three North-eastern states — Meghalaya, Nagaland and Tripura — go to the polls next year. And in none of these states does the Congress have a leader of the stature of Manipur strongman Ibobi Singh. After SC Jamir’s political retirement, Nagaland hasn’t been able to produce a strong Congress leader in the personality-centric politics of the North-east. In Meghalaya, the Congress stands a better chance to form a coalition government while in Tripura, CPM’s chief minister Manik Sarkar remains invincible.
Later in 2013, the Congress fortress may finally collapse in Delhi. If countrywide price rise and corruption issues are going to impact anywhere, it will be in the country’s capital. The Ashok Gehlot government in Rajasthan has become quite unpopular and may have to make way for a resurgent BJP.
In Madhya Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan appears a lot more vulnerable than he did in 2008 but the Congress has a fractured state unit comprising several regional satraps and may be unable to exploit the situation. Raman Singh looks unassailable in neighbouring Chhatisgarh and the Congress would have to work a miracle to dislodge him.
Rahul Gandhi will not be able to shy away from participating in the Congress quest for power in several of these states; maybe not so much in the North-east. But nowhere, as this packed election calendar suggests, does the Congress have a clear edge. And with Sonia Gandhi not being able to devote the same kind of time and energy, who else but Rahul will have to accept responsibility for what may turn out to be a series of miserable electoral performances.
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