Based on a study done by Abacus in 2013, Jeet Sawhney, the company’s MD tell Pooja Bhula about factors that may cause disruptions in travel around the world, this year
A recent report published by Abacus, based on 5,000 early-warning alerts broadcast by its partner Aid.com over the course of 2013, shows that last year, natural phenomena were the primary source of inconvenience.
Oceania and Southeast Asia took a battering with 275 and 219 ‘nature’ alerts, respectively, last year. The report further notes that though human-induced causes such as security, elections, political climate and others were fewer, they were more serious as escalation of situations lead to other alerts. The Middle East was the focus of most security alerts totalling 437, with Iraq at 209 and Syria at 115. In Asia, both India and Bangladesh witnessed frequent clashes and varied protests. Pakistan’s economic capital Karachi produced 25 security alerts last year, just ahead of Bangkok’s 22 political alerts and nine security alerts.
Giving us an idea of what to expect in 2014, Jeet Sawhney, Managing Director, Abacus, says, “If 2013 was anything to go by, the outlook for 2014 is an unpredictable mix of man-made and natural incidents. One event often triggers others that compound travel disruption.”
FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF 2014
Health alerts in The Middle East and West Africa
Cholera and other waterborne diseases are likely to follow in the wake of major floods or natural disasters. As of now, outbreaks of MERS in the Middle East and Ebola in west Africa are health concerns that may cause travel disruptions.
Security issues in the Middle East
With the ongoing civil war in Syria and recent escalation of conflict in Iraq and on the Israeli/ Palestinian border, the Middle East is likely to be intense. Though the number of alerts may account only for half of Europe’s volume, they are expected to be mostly security related, hence serious, rather than just inconvenient for travellers.
Political and traffic disruptions in Europe
This is expected as last year, one out of four alerts in Europe were related to political climate and traffic woes. Also note that historically in Europe and North America airports shutdown in December due to heavy snowfall.
Nature’s knell rings in India, the US and East Asia
India, within South Asia, may well quieten down now that the elections are over (last year 29% of India’s alerts were related to the political climate). But from a sample of India-based alerts last year, this year will mostly see warnings related to natural phenomena with seasonal influences. With the onset of rains and resulting floods, July is the peak month for alerts; January is usually the quietest. India, last year produced around the same number of alerts as the UK–the weather was the classic cause for Britain, with a lot of flooding.
This year, the US East Coast has already seen the season’s first hurricane, Arthur, and in the Pacific’s ongoing typhoon season, Neoguri (the typhoon) hits Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. This is expected to last until October or November.
@PoojaBhula
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