Faster? Higher? Stronger? How many miles to go before India shines on global sports map

Of the three multi-discipline games, the Commonwealth Games (CWG) has always been India's best bet for medal hauls. Even though the Asian and Commonwealth Games are held in the same year, it is the CWG that has been a better medal provider for India. While CWG boosts ego in terms of medals, there is an innate desire to excel at the Asian Games, if only to establish India as a continental power in sport, and the Olympics, of course, is a future goal, which for the present is some way off.

So, barring the 2010 CWG, which was held in India and where India as hosts fielded more than 400 athletes, the medal tally at the CWG and Asian Games are fairly comparable. The numbers showed a big difference in 2010 – 65 medals at the Asian Games and 101 in CWG as it was at home in Delhi.

But this year in Glasgow, with archery and tennis going out of the CWG programme, shooting losing its pairs events, and almost half of the shooting schedule and Greco-Roman being taken out of wrestling, India's medal haul suffered and fell from 101 to 64.

Yet, it was one of India's best-ever outside India with its 64 medals including 15 gold. India did have 69 medals, including 30 gold in 2002, but that was because weightlifting used to award three sets of medals in each weight category, with one each for snatch, clean and jerk and overall.

CWG vs Asiad
One main reason why it is difficult to compare the Indian medal hauls in the Commonwealth Games and Asian Games is because of the varying strengths of field in different disciplines at these two Games. In addition, the participating teams at both have different areas of strength.

The standard in the disciplines where India wins medals in CWG is considerably lower than at the Asian Games. And the disciplines where India wins medals at Asian Games, the Asian standard is lower than at the CWG. So, the two somewhat even out.

India's medals at both these Games come from different disciplines. If it is shooting, wrestling and weightlifting plus a few in boxing and judo (this time at Glasgow) in CWG, the medals at the Asian Games have traditionally come from athletics and a very limited number from sports like shooting or tennis and boxing, plus the odd ones from kabaddi and archery.

CWG, for instance, has a very high standard in athletics on account of the presence of England, Australia, Canada, South Africa and African countries like Kenya. So, India hardly wins any athletics events, except for the string of bronze medals and the odd gold as it happened in 2010 – Krishna Poonia in women's discus and the 4 x 400m relay women's team – and the discus gold from Vikas Gowda this year in Glasgow.

Seventy of India's 128 gold medals at Asian Games have come from athletics, which was India's core strength for a long period from 1950s to even early years of last decade. In contrast, India has won only three individual gold medals in the entire history of the CWG. Till Krishna Poonia's success in 2010, the sole athletics gold medallist for India from CWG was Milkha Singh in 1958. This time, Gowda became only the second Indian male to win an athletics gold at CWG. Since 1982, when China started making a big impact in Asian Games, even athletics success is limited. Add to that the spectre of doping, and Indian athletics has gone down dramatically.
In shooting, where India picks up medals in large numbers, the standards are very high in Asia, with the Chinese and Koreans ranking amongst the best in the world. They also have excellent track records at the Olympics. Then again in wrestling, where India dominates the Commonwealth, the presence of countries like Japan, Iran and ex-Soviet states like Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have also made a difference to India's medal hauls. Countries like Mongolia too become a hurdle for Indian wrestlers.

In weightlifting, too, China, Iran, Koreas and Kazakhstan have a better track record than India in Asia so medals become more that much more difficult to come by.

So, at the CWG India dominates shooting, wrestling and weightlifting, while its area of strength at Asian Games has been athletics, which has also shown signs of waning. But the presence of other motley disciplines like kabaddi, cue sports and even chess - as it was in 2006 – boosts India's tally.

As for the Olympic Games, for years, barring the lone hockey medal – yes India did have a wrestling bronze, too, in 1952 – India had nothing else to show till even the hockey medal did the vanishing trick 1980 onwards. Thereafter, it took till 1996 for India to re-appear on the medals tally, but it was no longer for hockey. It was tennis (Leander Paes) in 1996 and then Weightlifting in 2000 (Karnam Malleswari) and Shooting in 2004 (Rajyavardhan Rathore) elevated India from one bronze to one silver. It became three medals – a gold and two bronze - in 2008 and then it doubled to six with two silver and four bronze in 2012.

Optimists in Indian sport are always trying to find a trend in Indian sport after the Commonwealth Games. It seldom translates into significantly improved positions at Asian Games, and at the Olympics it continues to be a trickle – the number of drops are increasing, but it is still a long way off from becoming a torrent or even a stream.


Medal hopes
It is now clear that it is only a clutch of three or four disciplines which have the capability of getting India medals at the Olympics. They are shooting, wrestling, boxing and possibly weightlifting and/or badminton.


Shooting
While India will never dominate shooting at the Olympic or world level, as it does in CWG, it nevertheless has good depth to make an impact. Also the youthful nature of the team, as we saw in Glasgow, gives rise to the belief that India does have a good future in the sport.

A good number of Indian shooters have in recent times been winning World Championships and also regularly at the World Cups. Since these events are totally global in nature, these are the areas that augur well for India at the Olympics.

Jitu Rai has been World No. 1 in 10m Air Pistol, while Gagan Narang, Vijay Kumar and Sanjeev Rajput have been winning at World Cups among men. Among women there is Heena Sidhu, who did not have a great CWG, but she has been doing well otherwise. Also young faces like Malaika Goel, just 16, in 10m Air Pistol, Apurvi Chandela and Ayonika Paul in 10m Air Rifle, are among big hopes for the future including 2016 and 2020.
As Raninder Singh, President of the NRAI said, "The average age of the Indian shooting team is very young. A good number of these shooters range from 16 years (Malaika Goel, the women's 10m air pistol silver medallist is 16) to about 24-25 years. Around one-third of our team of about 30 shooters are 25 or under and a few more are under 30.

At the same time, with merit being the criteria for selection, age is no barrier. Many over 35 have made the team. For instance, trap shooter Mansher Singh is the most senior at 48 and was competing in his seventh CWG. He was in Glasgow because he shot better scores than others at trials. It's the same for Manavjit Sandhu, former world champion in Trap, who is about 37 years old. Vijay Kumar, Abhinav Bindra and Gagan Narang are among the other seniors. So shooting has a mix of youth and experience and that can only be good for the sport.


Wrestling
Wrestling is the other discipline offering medal hopes. Sushil Kumar moved to 74 kg from his previous category of 66 kg but is still a formidable star and so is his colleague and training partner, Yogeshwar Dutt, now in 66 kg. After winning his gold medal at Glasgow, Dutt commented, "We have a very strong team for Rio. Apart from Sushil and myself, there is Bajrang and Amit Kumar. We have a few more youngsters coming up and that would form a very strong team for the next few years for both World Championships and Olympics in 2016."


Badminton
Another discipline where India can make a mark even in 2016 is badminton. The depth has been growing. Saina Nehwal showed the way and P.V. Sindhu has emerged as a fine successor. Also, Parupalli Kashyap and R.M.V. Gurusaidutt have shown that they can hold their own. While the Chinese are absent from CWG, the Malaysians with their world-class stars are a major force. When the Chinese do appear, the Indian challenge faces many more hurdles, though Sindhu has breached the Chinese wall.


Boxing
Indian boxers have for a long time been getting into the quarter-final stages at the Olympics. They need one more push to get into the last four, from where making a charge for the medals will be more focused. The emergence of Devendro Laishram and a more match-fit Vijender Singh could still aim for medals in boxing. However, among women, India is yet to find the right successor for M.C. Marykom, even though Pinki Rani beat her to make the team to CWG, where she won a silver medal.


Archery
Archery may have been thrown out of the CWG programme, but it is a good discipline for India and the sport has shown a lot of progress with medals at the world level. It was indeed unfortunate that India could not get into the medal hunt at London in 2012 despite having the likes of world ranked Deepika Kumari, but she is sure to be around for 2016 and beyond.


The road ahead
One way India can make an impact at these disciplines is by ensuring that the pool of talent keeps increasing manifold. That will ensure there are adequate numbers to push each other to higher levels.

Also, to focus on Olympics, higher funds ought to be allocated to disciplines like shooting, wrestling, archery, boxing and badminton that are more likely to fetch medals instead of spreading it thin over dozens of disciplines.
But for all that a long-term vision is the need of the hour. And that in turn means we need professional bodies to come in along with private sector, which needs to chip in much more than what they are doing.

The likes of Olympic Gold Quest are doing their bit, but organisations like Mittal Sports Trust have wound up. We now need more of them to come in and play a bigger role.

Though there is a huge temptation to start aiming and dreaming of medals at Rio, the more pragmatic way would be to groom the youngsters, especially in their teens, and look ahead to 2020 Olympics.

While the established stars can aim for 2016, the real force should be a brigade getting ready for 2020.