A time for astrology

Come election season and its the time for astrology to kick in. You will have venerable psephologists who will tell you everything you need o know about the elections and as to who's winning and who's losing. They will quote research methodologies which in any case can't be trusted and then you will have legions of media organisations kicking in their paid media franchise while the sun shines so magnificently.

The truth of the matter is that India has never predicted a Prime Minister. Never ever. Other than Nehru, every Indian Prime Minister has been a dark horse and some have been superb mistakes. For instance which sensible voter in India would have ever wanted Deve Gowda as his Prime Minister or for that matter Charan Singh and so on.

On a personal front, I believe Modi will be a good Prime Minister but then there is historical precedence that he needs to challenge and overcome. In Delhi the forecast is that the Congress will get about 70 to 80 seats. My guess is that they will get even less. I believe BJP will get about 220 seats and form the Government. This whole baloney about alliances will vanish when all the allies begin to smell power and fear the use of the CBI. This is the usual pattern and nothing is going to change. The Aam Aadmi Party will be an effective spoiler but I don't think will manage more than 5 to 6 seats in the Lok Sabha elections. And the more Kejriwal appears on television, the less the chances of AAP being a meaningful player in the coming elections.

So where does that leave India? What is our future? I don't think we can do any worse than we've done in the last four years. This present Government has been cancerous to the core and has displayed both arrogance and brazenness which is quite startling given their limited achievements. Never has a Prime Minister been so humiliated or ridiculed and the Congress spelt the demise of this Government the day they propped up Rahul Gandhi and weakened the Prime Minister. When the office of the Prime Minister loses authority, an entire Government collapses and this is exactly what we've seen in the past few years.

Manmohan Singh, for all his honesty will be remembered as the weakest Prime Minister. Nero with a turban. A man who let his self-esteem crumble at the altar of avarice for power. But then remember, Manomhan Singh has always held jobs and not power. But the PM's office is not a job: it is authority and Manmohan got it hopelessly wrong.

Will the BJP form the perfect Government? I don't think so: they will have as much in-fighting as we are seeing even today. The old guard suffers from a sense of entitlement which will continue. Meanwhile the Mamatas and Jayas will sharpen their claws and their powers of blackmail. So if there's anyone predicting a comfortable ride for the next Government, then think again.

In sum, while we will have an election and democracy will once again churn its magic, I am afraid, India will continue to suffer because of the quality of political leadership that governs us today.

So what should make us happy? The fact that there is day after night. Nothing less. Nothing more.