Amidst talk of former union minister Bhanwar Jitendra Singh contesting the Alwar bypolls a very pertinent question is being asked in the political circles of the state; will this close aide of Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi achieve the impossible? Will he change the history of this parliamentary seat?
Amidst talk of former union minister Bhanwar Jitendra Singh contesting the Alwar bypolls a very pertinent question is being asked in the political circles of the state; will this close aide of Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi achieve the impossible? Will he change the history of this parliamentary seat?
Alwar seat, that has recently been fallen vacant after the death of MP Mahant Chandnath, has a history that no one has managed to get reelected from this seat in the last three decades.
Bhanwar belongs to the erstwhile royal family of Alwar and is being seen as a top claimant to represent the Congress on this seat where caste plays an important role. Not just because of his stature, but also due his proximity to the heir apparent Rahul Gandhi. Jitendra Singh had won the seat in 2009 election defeating Kiran Yadav, wife of Jaswant Yadav, who is presently the labour minister of Rajasthan by a thumping margin of 2.93 lakh votes. But when he contested on the same seat again in 2014 he lost to the late Mahant Chandnath by over 3.58 lakh votes. This is the case for every candidate that has contested on the seat for the last three decades.
In 1991, Mahendra Kumari, mother of Singh, had won the election as a BJP candidate. After tasting victory once she tried her luck in 1998 as an independent candidate and in 1999 as Congress candidate but was unfortunate and lost badly. Now, her son Singh is being considered for the third time from that very seat as he is apparently the best choice the Congress has. There is a lot that is in his favour. Being an erstwhile royal is sure to garner support of the Rajputs and also the traditional vote bank of the Congress namely the Muslims; particularly Meos, ST-SC and Jats.
But what goes against him is the three-decade old history of the Alwar parliamentary seat right from the 1991 polls that does not favour repeat victories. Prior to 1991, Ramji Lal Yadav, Shobha Ram and Ram Singh Yadav were only candidates who saw their renomination. The party sources says that after Ram Temple movement the BJP made its presence in the constituency and since 1991 its candidate won three times. The seat in recent past has been unlucky for those who wish to repeat their victory but it is lucky for those who lost first time. Rajasthan cabinet minister Jaswant Yadav lost to Congress Nawal Kishore in 1996 registered victory in 1999 defeating Mahendra Kumari. Similarly, Mahant Chandnath, due to whose untimely death the seat has fallen vacant, was unlucky in 2004.
The overall history of election statistics, however, favours Congress . In the 16 Lok Sabha elections held till date, the Congress has won the constituency 10 times, BJP could won it only thrice while BLD, JD and Independent each won the seat.
Albeit, the candidate from Congress is sure to have an edge with strong anti-incumbency factor as BJP is the ruling party in Rajasthan as well as the Centre. The BJP too hopes to win the coveted by poll as it had claimed 9 out of 11 assembly constituencies that fall under Alwar Parliamentary seat in the 2013 polls.
The history
Alwar seat, that has recently been fallen vacant after the death of MP Mahant Chandnath, has a history that no one has managed to get reelected from this seat in the last three decades.
In the 16 Lok Sabha elections held till date, the Congress has won the constituency 10 times, BJP could won it only thrice.
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