Very often opinion polls have gone horribly wrong in India, which is why no one trusts them. We rely more on betting market. So, if the latest opinion poll is suggesting that Congress is catching up fast with the BJP, don’t just discard it because this is seconded by the betting markets in Rajasthan.
The ground situation seems to be changing with each passing week. From an invincible position a couple of months ago, the BJP is still declared a winner but not without a tough fight being put up by the Congress.
Just as the latest opinion polls suggested, the betting market too has surprisingly changed its equations. All three major betting centres in the state are indicating that things are not looking bright for the BJP. Instead of springing to the victory podium, it may now huff and puff to the finishing line.
Contrary to BJP president Amit Shah’s claim of 150 seats, the punters have been constantly reducing the number of seats to the party. Only 10days ago, the BJP was given 120-125 seats, which has drastically fallen to 102. This may fall further before the first phase of polling on December 9.
Many reasons have been attributed to this decline including Patidar agitation, rise of three young leaders, Hardik, Alpesh and Jignesh, demonetisation and GST, weak state leadership of the BJP and steady improvement in Rahul Gandhi coupled with Ashok Gehlot’s shrewd strategy.
Phalodi, which is the biggest centre, has estimated 102-104 seats, a deficit of 15 seats over the previous elections while Congress is given 70-72 seats.
In Shekhawati betting market, the situation for BJP appears to be worse as only 99-101 seats are predicted and the Congress is expected to get 82-85. Similarly, in the third biggest betting centre in the state, the BJP appears weak but will manage to form the government.
‘VOLATILE’ MARKET
Just as the latest opinion polls suggested, the betting market too has surprisingly changed its equations. All three major betting centres in the state are indicating that things are not looking bright for the BJP.
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