Maharashtra assembly elections are now a lottery

So the almost unthinkable has happened. All the four parties - the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Shiv Sena, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) - have got rid of their respective allies in Maharashtra and suddenly the state assembly elections are anybody's game.

Barely a couple of weeks ago, it was almost certain that the alliances would move on course and settle their seat-sharing disputes amicably at the end of the day. Anti-incumbency seemed very strong and it was going to be a cakewalk for the Shiv-Sena-BJP. That, precisely, is what seems to have turned against the spirit of alliance between the two parties as both became greedy for the chief minister's post, which they were looked almost certain to get.

While that may explain why the Sena and the BJP parted ways, it is still not clear why the Congress and NCP decided to test their own strength. It is all the more mysterious given that neither of them is in a position to even contest all seats by themselves, let alone win a chunk of them. This is even truer about the NCP, though the party claims to be in a stronger position merely on the basis of a couple of more Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 general elections. 

In the last one month, almost 50 leaders of some stature in the NCP have said goodbye to the party and have embraced either Sena or the BJP.  This includes their former state presidents, former ministers and even sitting ministers, and the list is growing.

While the breakup of alliances meant the opening up of new opportunities for young leaders across parties, it may not be good news for voters. Because suddenly, the issues that existed before the breakup have been rendered meaningless as the contests have become five-cornered (in several constituencies, it is even more as smaller parties will also try to show their nuisance value) and therefore unpredictable.

We have seen this happening before in the 2009 elections where the new player Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) upended the Sena-BJP applecart in both the Lok Sabha as well as the assembly elections. Rookie MNS candidates ate away enough votes to help the Congress-NCP register an easy win in constituencies they were sure to lose. We may see surprise wins due to several permutations and combinations that have arisen, and we may see a large number of independents coming to the party, like they did in 1995.

The anti-incumbency factor will be diluted to a great extent as the main opposition - Sena and the BJP - will be trading punches over who betrayed whom. Uddhav and his party mouthpiece have given enough indications that they will turn this into a Marathi vs Gujarati fight as they hold BJP president Amit Shah responsible for the breakup. Sena's focus now will be the BJP and not so much the Congress or NCP. 

Now that the Congress-NCP alliance doesn't exist anymore, there is no clear target in sight for either of the opposition parties. They may try to focus their attack on the Pawar family, mainly Ajit Pawar as there is no face left in Congress to attack. 

The Modi wave gets nullified when the 25-year old ally starts asking uncomfortable questions over Pakistan and China. We have already seen what happened in the bypolls, where despite favourable conditions, the BJP couldn't register a sweep. It becomes even more difficult when the party has to face an ally that is as aggressive on Hindutva - its main plank. The other plank - that of replicating the development model in Gujarat, gets a setback when the ally raises Marathi pride (eerily similar to Modi's Garvi Gujarat).

The Congress and the NCP are banking on their local bigwigs to win the show in the changed circumstances where a couple of thousand votes will become decisive. And that seems to be the only reason why the Congress and NCP decided to split. It has helped them negate the anti-incumbency and get their local leaders in the focus. They will no longer be answerable for the misdeeds of 15 years as they can be blamed on their erstwhile partners.

Ladies and gentlemen, this election is now a lottery. Who dares, wins.