State assembly elections are due in 2012. By then, the bill is expected to be implemented
By the time the procedure for implementing 33% reservation for women in parliament and assemblies is completed (by 2012, if the Centre manages to get it passed ) Uttar Pradesh would get ready for an assembly election.
That perhaps explains the reason behind the aggression and anxiety of Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Mulayam Singh Yadav on the issue. “The Yadav chieftain stands to lose ground on home turf in a big way if the Congress gambit works,” says a senior journalist.
The same goes for the ruling Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). Though Mayawati’s outfit did not oppose the Bill as loudly, it did echo the SP’s demand for a quota within the quota. Both have demanded sub-quotas for backwards, minorities and scheduled castes and scheduled tribes, perhaps because both are targets of the Congress strategy.
Congress could post major benefits. For, the common man sees party chief Sonia Gandhi as the driving force behind the bill. “Apart from the caste equations in the states, one just has to add the ‘Rahul effect’ on the youth and the ‘Sonia effect’ on women to understand the electoral gains Congress can corner by bringing this bill,” says a veteran political analyst.
Congress, however, does not support this theory. “It is wrong to attribute political or electoral motives to the bill,” says Vivek Singh, chief spokesman of the party’s UP unit. “The bill is aimed at giving equal opportunity to half of our population... what’s wrong with that?” he says.
That is a question Mulayam could answer best. “If 33% reservation is imposed, 100% of the seats would have been reserved by rotation by the end of the third year… by that time, there would be 85% women in parliament and assemblies, and only a handful of men,” he says. “Isn’t it unfair that men would be able to contest only 67% seats while women would be free to contest all?” he reasons.
However, things seem to be working in favour of the anti-bill brigade, like Mulayam and RJD chief Laloo Prasad. At an all-party meeting called in New Delhi on Monday, even the BJP, which had been supporting the bill, showed signs that it had developed cold feet due to opposition in its own ranks.
Besides, UPA partners like Trinamool, NCP, and National Conference have also said they might not support the bill in Lok Sabha. Even the CPM, a strong supporter of the bill initially, seems to be struggling with internal contradictions of the issue.
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