High polling may be an indication of anti-incumbency or because of campaign by the Gandhi scion.
The fourth phase of the Uttar Pradesh assembly election passed off peacefully on Sunday with a couple of incidents being reported from different parts of the state.
The overall polling percentage recorded at 5 pm was 57.2, an impressive 32 per cent more than the 44.84% polling in the same area in the 2007 election.
The state capital, Lucknow, threw up a major surprise with a polling of about 56 per cent. In past elections, the urban voters here have been rather detached from the electoral process; in 2007, the polling percentage in Lucknow was 35.85 per cent. The results in Lucknow, a BJP bastion, will be seen as an indicator of whether the influence of former PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee still remains. Vajpayee was Lucknow MP from 1991 to 2009. He could not campaign here due to ill health. Lucknow is also crucial for the Congress as its state president Rita Bahuguna Joshi is contesting here.
The high percentage of polling, political observers say, could spell trouble for the ruling BSP as a high turnout is normally seen as an indication of a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. However, the increased polling could also be a result of the excitement in the first-time voters who number over one crore in UP in this election.
Similarly, the high turnout of voters in Rae Bareli (almost 60 per cent as compared to about 48 per cent in 2007) and Amethi (now a new district named Chhatrapati Shahu Ji Maharaj Nagar) could also mean a vote for change in the Gandhi-Nehru pocket borough. On the flip side, the better polling could also be due to Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s exhaustive campaign in Rae Bareli and Amethi.
The Congress had won eight of the 10 assembly seats falling in the two Parliamentary constituencies, and this time, Priyanka has vowed to execute a clean sweep. The Nehru-Gandhi family is facing a tough challenge for the Rae Bareli Sadar seat from former Congress MLA and now Peace Party candidate Akhilesh Singh, who commands a huge following in the area, despite his criminal record. Singh, who enjoys a Robin Hood image, has won the last four elections from this seat.
Banda and Chitrakoot districts will give out clear signals about the BSP’s hold in the Bundelkhand region. Two more districts of this region are yet to vote. The BSP was the front-runner in Bundelkhand in the 2007 election, and one of its most powerful cabinet ministers and the Muslim face of the party, Naseemuddin Siddiqui, hails from Banda. This region is also crucial for Congress leader Rahul Gandhi who has made a number of visits to this area and also got a Rs 8,000-crore package from the UPA government for this backward region.
Kannauj, which voted on Sunday, is important for the Samajwadi Party as its state president Akhilesh Singh is MP from this seat. In Farrukhabad, Union law minister Salman Khursheed’s wife Louise is locked in a desperate fight to retain her Assembly seat.
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