Was it the Election Commission’s awareness drive, the Anna Hazare factor, the excitement of new voters, an anti-incumbency wave or a decisive vote for change? Such questions have been churning the minds of many a political observer after the over 62 per cent voting in the first phase of the UP assembly election on Wednesday.
EC officials here are also surprised over the high percentage of voting despite the heavy rainfall and bad weather in the region where votes were polled for 55 seats spread over 10 districts. The polling was as much as 15 per cent higher than the vote in the area in the 2007 election. Even in urban areas, it was over 55 per cent this time, which is considered quite high.
“Initially, we were quite apprehensive, but as the skies cleared up, the voting percentage picked up rapidly,” says a beaming deputy election commissioner Alok Shukla. EC officials are now calling it the “SVEEP effect” which stands for the Systematic Voters’ Education and Electoral Participation programme to spread awareness about the importance of voting.
“Not only did we impress upon the electorate that voting is their right but also that it’s their duty,” says UP’s chief electoral officer (CEO) Umesh Sinha. “The voters have scored a first division (over 60 per cent) in the first phase, and we hope they would get a distinction (over 75 per cent) in the rest of the phases,” he remarks.
Senior journalist and avid political watcher Dilip Awasthi plays it safe, describing the high turnout as the voters’ “X-factor”. He explains that an abnormally high voter turnout never goes down well with the ruling party. “It is largely believed that voters turn out in large numbers to express their disenchantment with the government of the day,” he says. However, he is quick to add that over one crore of the voters in UP this time will exercise their franchise for the first time, thanks to an extensive electoral rolls revision drive. Besides, he says, as much as 46 per cent of the electorate comprises youth (18 to 39 years). “This chunk is the biggest puzzle in this election, and this X-factor has the potential to change things drastically. But, at present no one can say where it will go,” he adds.
Psephologists have for long believed that a high voter turnout could indicate an anti-incumbency factor at play. But, this dictum has also been proved wrong in UP itself. Governments with clear majority have been formed with a low voter turnout as happened in 1991 (48.51 per cent polling) and in 2007 (45.95 per cent), while elections which saw a high turnout — as in 1993 (57.13%), 1996 (55.73%) and 2002 (53.80%) — resulted in coalition governments.
Says Dr Ramesh Dixit, a social activist and former professor of Lucknow University: “This time, the people seem to be rising above considerations of caste and community, and voting decisively for development and clean leadership, which is definitely a good sign for democracy.”
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