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Karnataka government crisis is a proxy for BJP-RSS war

But privately, many are beginning to question the wisdom of clinging to a government that’s been battered to pulp by a vicious internecine war.

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The hectic activity at the residences of senior Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders in Delhi these days belies the underlying sense of despair gripping the party as the crisis in its government in Karnataka shows no signs of abating. Outwardly, they seem to be making every possible effort to save their tottering southern flank. But privately, many are beginning to question the wisdom of clinging to a government that’s been battered to pulp by a vicious internecine war.

The broad contours of the compromise formula on offer to Karnataka chief minister BS Yeddyurappa and the three powerful Reddy brothers from Bellary leading the revolt are as follows. Yeddyurappa stays as CM but dumps the two ministers in the eye of the current storm, home minister VS Acharya and rural development minister Shobha Karandlaje. The Reddys have been demanding their heads along with Yeddyurappa’s. As a quid pro quo for the removal of these ministers, the Reddys will call off the war against the CM and agree not to destabilise the government.

Although he is trying to hold out, Yeddyurappa is under tremendous pressure to agree to this formula. But BJP leaders acknowledge that the fissures in Karnataka run too deep for long-term stability and even if Yeddyurappa gives in, it’s just a matter of time before the first saffron government in the south comes crashing down under the weight of its internal contradictions.  

The Karnataka crisis has unfolded like a Greek tragedy. The faultlines were evident almost from the time Yeddyurappa was sworn in as chief minister, when he was forced to accommodate all three Reddy brothers in his cabinet against his will. Such was the clout of the Reddys that certain Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) leaders in Karnataka spoke up for their inclusion in the government.

Given the inherent tensions in the power structure in Karnataka, the current crisis is not unexpected. What is surprising is the way in which it has been allowed to spin out of control and threaten the very existence of the government. And the responsibility for this lies entirely with the central leadership which is currently locked in another, more dangerous battle that could unravel the BJP and displace it as the premier national opposition party.

BJP sources who wish to remain anonymous believe that the crisis in Karnataka is part of a proxy war between the senior leadership and the RSS for control of the party. The catalyst was Mohan Bhagwat’s elevation as RSS chief and his determination to revamp the BJP by bringing in a new generation of leaders.

While his main target is LK Advani, who he wants out from the post of leader of opposition, Bhagwat has also made it clear that there is no room for “Delhi-based” leaders in his blueprint for a new BJP. The phrase is a euphemism for the four who are considered close to Advani -- Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Venkaiah Naidu and Ananthkumar.

It’s no coincidence that all four are in some way or another connected to the current crisis in Karnataka. Ananthkumar has been opposed to Yeddyurappa from the very beginning, and tried to stop him from becoming CM. Swaraj has been the political mentor of the Reddy brothers and was responsible for bringing them into the BJP and developing them into a powerhouse in Bellary. Jaitley and Naidu are Ananthkumar’s mentors in Delhi.

Yeddyurappa, on the other hand, draws his strength from Nagpur, where the RSS is headquartered. While he may have his differences with sections of Karnataka RSS leaders, he has made it a point to keep the top brass in good humour. This is a strategy adopted by other BJP chief ministers like Shivraj Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh and Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh.

The battlelines are obvious and so is the signal that has been sent to Bhagwat through the campaign against Yeddyurappa. It’s a virtual challenge from Delhi to Nagpur, a dark hint of the consequences to follow if the RSS dares to impose its will on the BJP.

Advani is believed to have communicated to Bhagwat that he is ready to step down as leader of opposition but on condition that one of the four from his coterie is appointed president of the BJP when Rajnath Singh demits office in December/January. Bhagwat remains adamant about doing a deep search to choose someone from outside.

Yeddyurappa is a victim of this clash of wills. Unfortunately, the game has snowballed into something much bigger than anticipated. The campaign against Yeddyurappa was intended merely to send a message to the RSS bosses to lay off and let the party sort out its leadership issue without interference from Nagpur. But egged on by Congress leaders from Andhra Pradesh, the move seems to have acquired a life of its own. “The Bellary brothers are not going to listen to anyone. They have much bigger interests than keeping the BJP government alive in Karnataka,” said one BJP source.

According to party leaders here, the Reddys have the support of enough MLAs to bring down the Yeddyurappa government and they couldn’t care less if it falls. This is giving them the strength to bargain hard and the combined weight of Swaraj, Jaitley, Naidu and Ananthkumar has failed to keep them on track.

Realising that the BJP will take a huge knock if its government in Karnataka falls, central leaders are making a desperate attempt to douse the flames. Yeddyurappa has the biggest stake because he stands to lose the chief minister’s post, which is why he is under intense pressure to compromise.

If Yeddyurappa agrees to dump his two favourite ministers, it will be a climbdown for him and a victory of sorts for the Delhi brigade in their silent battle with the RSS bosses. But the victory may soon turn sour because the BJP-RSS war represents a much deeper existential crisis within the saffron family.
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