With negotiations teetering on the verge of collapse, prime minister (PM) Manmohan Singh will be flying into uncertain climate in Copenhagen on Thursday. Unless there is a last-minute breakthrough in the deadlock that has developed after 10 days of hard bargaining by representatives from 190-odd countries, it may fall on US president Barack Obama and other world leaders to salvage a conference that is supposed to finalise a new treaty to save the planet from the debilitating effects of climate change.
Consequently, the PM has kept open the option of unscheduled pull-aside strategy meetings with counterparts from India’s main partners in the climate talks, China, Brazil and South Africa. Foreign secretary Nirupama Rao indicated as much on Wednesday with double emphasis on the words “as of now” when she said no bilateral meetings were planned in Copenhagen.
The battle lines between the developed and developing countries are so firmly drawn that most participants have given up hope of concluding a legally binding treaty on emission cuts at Copenhagen to replace the Kyoto Protocol which runs out in 2012. But the disturbing news is that there is no agreement even on the political declaration that is to be issued at the end of the conference on December 18.
A further cause for worry is the formation of a troika comprising Australia, Mexico and the United Nations secretary-general to draft the political declaration. Australian PM Kevin Rudd has emerged as the main voice of the developed countries and is known for his bulldozing tactics.
Officials here are apprehensive that he may spring an eleventh-hour surprise, like he did at last month’s Commonwealth meet in Port of Spain, and muscle his counterparts into negotiating the fine print of the political document. This is something PM Singh wants to avoid at all costs, as environment minister Jairam Ramesh stressed in Copenhagen a couple of days ago.
Given the dramatic twists and turns the conference has taken since it began last Monday, negotiators have warned the PM to be prepared for all eventualities in a situation that threatens to remain fluid till the very end.
Still, the government is keeping its fingers crossed for a miracle to happen on the eve of Friday’s plenary summit of world leaders so that a non-contentious draft political declaration can be put up for approval.
What would satisfy the BASIC (Brazil, South Africa, India and China) bloc is that developed countries agree not to change the negotiating template even if the finalisation of a new treaty is postponed to the Mexico conference in the second half of 2010. In other words, the Copenhagen declaration should contain the reports of the two working groups, one on Long-term Cooperation Actions and the other on the Kyoto Protocol.
“If this happens, it means the same negotiations will continue without a break and there won’t be a new agenda for the post-Copenhagen climate talks,” said a senior official.
Comments