India meteorological department studying onset dates of past 30 years to arrive at a new one.
Where are the rains? As this question keeps haunting people going restless because of the delayed arrival of monsoon, the weather office is trying to figure out the date for its onset. Though official sources did not give any new date, it is believed that the rains might start hitting Gujarat anytime around July 1.
After the first spell on June 15-16, the monsoon kept the weather office on tenterhooks for its disappearing act. The central weather office is now reviewing the changing monsoon pattern in the country and plans to announce new trends and dates for various regions, including Gujarat. The central weather office felt the need to review the monsoon pattern as the current predictions are made on the basis of study during 1900-1980.
Call it climate change or simply changing weather pattern, met department officials have been observing change and delay in monsoon pattern.
Dr BP Yadav, director of forecasting at India Meteorological department (IMD), New Delhi, said: "The dates and trends that the weather office currently has are based on the study of the pattern that persisted during 1900-1980. However, the rain pattern has certainly changed for the country and hence, weather the department is at present reviewing the pattern and trends of rain activity in various regions from 1980 to 2010.
A meticulous study of monsoon onset dates and average rainfall of last 30 years is at present being conducted for 36 meteorological subdivisions."
Sources in local weather office confirmed that the review of the changing rain pattern in Gujarat was being conducted. And the average date for the onset of monsoon of last 30 years starting from 1980 is being reviewed.
The forecasted date for monsoon for Gujarat has remained June 15 for long. However, the actual onset of monsoon has happened during June 24 to 29 for last five years. June 26 was the date of onset for Gujarat in 2005, in 2006 it was June 29, in 2007 the onset date was June 24, in 2008 the date was June 26, and in 2009 the date was June 24.
"The review of last two or three decades of rain pattern shows postponed onset of the monsoon, hence the actual date for monsoon in Gujarat needs to be corrected," said Dr Shital Lodhia, professor of climate change and impact management course run by Gujarat University.
With inputs from Niyati Rana
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