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Onset of monsoon, winter may see return of swine flu, say experts

Even as a mild wave of swine flu begins to grip Maharashtra — which has seen 7,092 cases since the first outbreak in 2009 and 200 in the past month —India launched its first indigenous monovalent vaccine against H1N1.

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The Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) is prepared to deal with the recurrence of the second and third waves of the Influenza A H1N1 virus this monsoon. The virus, say experts, can become virulent in colder seasons.

“The chances of these waves are higher during the monsoon and winter,” ICMR director general Dr VM Katoch said.

Even as a mild wave of swine flu begins to grip Maharashtra — which has seen 7,092 cases since the first outbreak in 2009 and 200 in the past month —India launched its first indigenous monovalent vaccine against H1N1.

Cadilla-made VaxiFlu-S is a single shot vaccine for people above 18 years. “It was found that those in the age-group of 18-60 were the most affected by the virus. So our priority was to roll out vaccines for this population first,” said health minister Ghulam Nabi Azad. The vaccine trials for children and pregnant women are on and are likely to be launched soon.

A monovalent vaccine has only one specific antigen, or antibody. In this case it is the H1N1 strain. The vaccine will be available in open market for Rs350. The cost is expected to come down after three more companies — Bharat Biotech (Hyderabad), Panacea Biotec (Delhi) and Serum Institute of India (Pune)— roll out their vaccines.

The imported vaccines available in Indian market cost between Rs900-1,000.

“With the onset of monsoon and winter, the number of H1N1 cases is expected to rise. It is important that those falling in the high-risk category get themselves vaccinated,” said Azad. The high-risk category includes people with chronic pulmonary diseases like asthma, chronic metabolic diseases like diabetes, chronic cardiovascular diseases, chronic renal dysfunction and haemoglobinopathies like thalassaemia or sickle disorder and immunosupression.

In Maharashtra, the H1N1 outbreak was observed more during the rainy season — July-August — while in Delhi it was there throughout the year, its effect being the worst in winter. “On an average, Maharashtra see 20 deaths due to swine flu every month.

Recently, three deaths have occurred in Pune — while two were on May 28, another one was on June 1 in Pimpri Chinchwad area,” said Dr Pradeep Awate, head of Swine Flu Control Room for state.
Awate said it is natural to expect a rise in number of cases as even normal influenza cases increase during monsoon.

“We have started vaccination of paramedical staff and are preparing isolation wards and screening centres,”  said Awate.

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