Bihar: No-nonsense leadership trumps the nonsensical

The stupendous victory of the Nitish Kumar led Janata Dal (United) — BJP alliance which has won 206 of the 243 seats in Bihar is unusual for a battleground state where caste has always held sway over voting choices. What has made such a massive win possible and led to the worst ever rout of the Lalu Prasad Yadav led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) and the Congress is the subject of intense debate in political circles.

The impressive victory has no doubt been scripted by state level factors such as good governance and the popular leadership of Nitish Kumar which have caught the imagination of the electorate.

Yet, the virtual sweep of the BJP, junior partner in the alliance, that bagged 91 of the 102 seats it contested, and the decimation of the Congress party — it won only four out of all the 243 seats it contested — despite being powered by Rahul Gandhi’s spirited campaign, shows that there is a national sub-theme to the Bihar election that has gone widely unnoticed.

Law and order is the clincher
Ordinary voters across the state — even confirmed supporters of the rival parties — ungrudgingly acknowledge that Nitish Kumar has transformed the law and order situation in the state. Memories of the days of “Jungle Raj” during the rule of Lalu Prasad Yadav are still fresh in the minds of people and the improved law and order situation created a groundswell of support for the JD (U)-BJP alliance.

In the cow-belt states of Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, prone to lawlessness, law and order has emerged as the most salient issue in recent elections. Mayawati’s emphatic win in the 2002 UP assembly polls was primarily on account of the “Goonda Raj” during the reign of Mulayam Singh Yadav.

Back to back victories by NDA in Bihar can also be attributed primarily to the same factor, along with a qualitative improvement in the working of the much maligned Bihar administration.

Gender touch
Indian elections have in the past exhibited a strong anti-incumbency trend resulting in the defeat of many governments, as they failed to perform to people’s expectations. The trend has been changing as smart leaders have learnt the art of enticing their electorate with popular schemes.

Nitish Kumar has implemented many schemes that caught the popular imagination. The scheme under which all school-going girls who have passed 8th standard are given free bicycles — christened Mukhyamantri Balika Cycle Yojana — has paid rich dividends and they have become ambassadors of brand Nitish. In a poverty-ridden, hitherto badly governed state like Bihar, this scheme produced a great impact. Nitish Kumar ensured that there was no corruption in its implementation.

Ruling parties and chief ministers in different states are adopting their own innovative schemes like Ladli Lakshmi Yojana in Madhya Pradesh, Chiranjeevi Yojana in Gujarat, Bhagya Lakshmi in Karnataka, and Arograsri in Andhra Pradesh. 

At a time when poverty levels continue to be high and inflation is upsetting the family budget, people on the margins of existence expect sensitive regimes to come to their rescue. Targeted welfare measures are thus an imperative. But have political parties smartly clothed populism and electoral sops into a new paradigm of governance and a new mantra of electoral success? Perhaps, yes. But nobody is complaining, yet, as they are working quite well.

Caste was still a factor
Does the Bihar verdict mean that caste does not play much of a role in elections and has lost its relevance? It is erroneous to make such an assessment. Caste continues to be a dominant factor in Indian elections and more so in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.

What is perhaps significant today is that many caste groups are not loyal to parties and can be wooed by performance. The JD(U)-BJP alliance has also worked assiduously to manage the most backward and upper castes in its favour. That caste did play an important role becomes evident from the fact that the JD (U)-BJP alliance had polled just 39% of the votes cast. If the voting were to be purely on performance, the NDA would have secured more than 50% of the popular vote.

The Muslim shocker
A big story of this election is the manner in which Muslims — considered to be a vote bank of the secular brigade — hopped onto the development bandwagon. Gone are the days when Muslim votes could be taken for granted.
In Bihar, a sizeable chunk of Muslims voted not just for the JD (U) but also for the BJP — something unthinkable a few years ago. This phenomenon is not limited to Bihar. It is happening in Gujarat too, where a sizeable section of Muslims have voted for the Narendra Modi led BJP in local body elections.

The signs of change were also evident in the mature manner in which both Hindus and Muslims responded to the Ayodhya verdict with equanimity. The shift in Muslim attitude is sending shockwaves in the Congress and other ultra secular parties as they are waking up to the new reality that they could no longer rake in Muslim votes by merely projecting the BJP as a devil.

No-nonsense leadership
Indian elections are increasingly becoming leader-centric, American presidential style contests. People are craving for leaders who are honest, accessible and have a strong, pro-poor and pro-people orientation. With parties looking similar, electoral choice is being influenced by a leader’s appeal and the public trust in the leader.

Changing demography and younger electorates with a clear preference for performance are contributing to this trend.
Leaders like Narendra Modi, Naveen Patnaik, Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Raman Singh, Shiela Dikshit, and the late YS Rajasekhara Reddy are largely responsible for winning repeated terms. The honest image of Manmohan Singh also significantly contributed to the UPA’s return to power at the Centre in 2009.

In Nitish Kumar’s case, his positive image is further accentuated by the negative image of Lalu Prasad Yadav among large sections of the electorate. The no-nonsense approach of Nitish Kumar is in sharp contrast with the nonsensical approach of Lalu Prasad Yadav.

A reaction to curruption
The Bihar electorate seems to have reacted to the spate of scams involving the Congress party led UPA government at the Centre, namely the Commonwealth Games scam, spectrum scam etc. What else would explain the decimation of the Congress party?

Corruption has devastated the Congress party’s prospects in Bihar and lifted the BJP’s fortunes as it is the principal opposition party at the Centre. This is a big takeaway from this election.

In recent years, corruption had ceased to be a factor in elections and many corrupt governments were re-elected. This assessment seems to have lulled the Congress party into complacency as it attempts to brazen it out through various scams. But the Bihar election results suggest that unabashed indulgence in mega scams has struck the Congress party with a ferocity unknown for many years. The sheer scale of corruption and the relentless media onslaught seem to have produced a lethal effect.

Bihar had heralded seminal changes in Indian politics in the past. Given its propensity to steer the course of national politics, the present Bihar election outcome may signal major changes in Indian politics in the coming years.

Far from fulfilling the Rahul Gandhi-driven dream project of returning to the Centre with a majority on its own by reviving its fortunes in Bihar and UP, the Congress will have to re-assess its future plans.

On the other hand, the BJP — which appeared to lack the momentum — has suddenly acquired a big bounce with the massive success in Bihar.
Watch out for the next round of assembly elections scheduled for Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and West Bengal in May next year. If the present trend is any indication, bad news awaits the Congress in these states.

The author is a political analyst