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With a week left, monsoon deficit at 9%

A delayed rally of the monsoon, owing to the depression over Central and Northwest India, has brought good rains to Central, Northern and Northwest India.

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Children walk on a waterlogged street following rainfall in Amritsar on Sunday
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With just a week left for the season to officially end, the country is staring at a below average monsoon, even as Cyclone Daye has spurred a late surge in rains. As of Sunday, the country as a whole had received 777.4 mm rainfall, a deficit of 9 per cent. If countrywide rainfall is 90-96 per cent of the long-period average, it is considered as below normal. Based on the 1951-2000 data, the country's long-period average of June to September period is 890 mm.

A delayed rally of the monsoon, owing to the depression over Central and Northwest India, has brought good rains to Central, Northern and Northwest India. According to the India Meteorological Department, the depression has moved north-northwestwards and has weakened into a low-pressure area over west Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring Rajasthan. These conditions will trigger widespread rainfall over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi and Haryana.

IMD's data showed that over the entire course of the monsoon season, countrywide rainfall deficit kept growing with each passing month. The lull in monsoon was pronounced from mid-July onward. The month of August recorded a deficit of 7.6 per cent, while the deficit in September up to the 23rd of the month was 22.3 per cent. As of Sunday, Bihar, Jharkhand, the Northeast region, Gujarat, northern Karnataka, northern Tamil Nadu, Rayalaseema and western Rajasthan are facing a deficit in the range of 20-59 per cent.

In its forecasts issued in April and June, IMD had said that monsoon would be normal and 97 per cent of the long-period average.

"One of the main factors that suppressed this year's southwest monsoon rainfall was the El Niño-like situation that got triggered around mid-July as a result of the warming in some parts of Pacific Ocean. Such conditions affect the formation of clouds and rainfall in India by inducing a semi-permanent sinking motion of the air," said Akshay Deoras, an independent meteorologist and PhD student, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading.

He added, "Subsequently, the formation of a very vital monsoon low-pressure system is impacted. This leads to prolonged break periods and subdued rainfall activity in the country.

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