When India Pak'ed A Punch

Twelve days after a suicide bomber blew up 40 CRPF troopers in Pulwama district of Jammu and Kashmir along the busy National Highway, on February 26, 2019, PM Narendra Modi arrived at South Block, headquarters of the Defence Ministry, well past midnight. He was straightaway led into the highly secretive block that houses the World War-II War Room, now known as Operation Room.

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval, Air Chief Marshal BS Dhanoa, the head of RAW Anil Kumar Dhasmana and Intelligence Bureau chief Rajiv Jain were waiting for him. The Army chief General Bipin Rawat and Navy chief Vice Admiral Sunil Lanba had also arrived, but were monitoring the situation from their offices in the same building.

Since the 1971 war, India was, for the first time, breaking a self-imposed psychological barrier by launching air strikes inside Pakistan. Though soon after the Uri attack of 2016, Modi had sanctioned the surgical strikes inside PoK, India never admitted to crossing the LoC. In the official handout, India had conducted an "operation along the LoC", allowing an element of deniability. Pakistan also publicly denied them, though its armed forces are believed to have known what had happened. By doing so, it was also able to preserve its nuclear overhang doctrine.

The fighters — Mirages from Gwalior — took off at 1.30 am. The Sukhoi-30 MKIs that would act as decoys to provide cover if the Mirages were intercepted, two Phalcon AWACS and Embraer AEW&C mid-air refuellers and Heron drones for photographing the targets also took off.

A Netra AWACS jet that took off from Bhatinda acted as command and control from the air, vectoring the fighters towards the targets. Sources in the security establishment confirmed the IAF planes played mind games with the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) before accomplishing their operation. It is believed that two units of IAF fighters kept the PAF jets engaged in two sectors, Lahore-Sialkotborder and Okara-Bahawalpur.

It is not clear whether the Jets were aiming to hit the Laskhkar-e-Toiba (LeT) base near Lahore and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) headquarters in Bahawalpur in Southern Punjab. There are some 500 madrassas in Bahawalpur belonging to Deobandi and Ahl-e-Hadith orientations. The most wanted man for Indian investigating agencies, Maulana Masood Azhar, had set up a 4.5-acre walled complex outside the city that served as the JeM HQ.

Since PAF jets had already noticed the movement of IAF planes,there was full drama along the international border. Pakistan Army spokesperson Major General Asif Ghafoor also admitted that their Combat Air Patrol (CAP) mission had challenged IAF fighters when they were 7-to-8 nautical miles from Lahore-Sialkot border.

While two IAF formations had kept Pakistanis fully engaged, the Netra jet informed the third unit that there was no PAF visibility in a 100-km vicinity in J&K's Keran-Athamuqam sector.

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As many as 12 Mirage jets crossed the LoC from Keran Sector, flew over the Athmuqam, Nowshehri passing along Muzaffarabad skies, the capital of PoK, before they sighted the Garhi Habibullah, town of Mansehra district in Pakistan's Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) province, some 80 km into the hinterland, sending across a message that no place in Pakistan is safe.

They dropped bombs in the dense forests on the Jaba top between Garhi Habibullah and Balakot. At the Jaba top, Maulana Masood Azhar runs a madrassa believed to be a training camp of JeM. Situated on Kunhar river, the camp has been offering the possibility of aquatic training to terrorists. Intelligence sources said that at the camp, terrorists were imparted training in weapons, explosives and field tactics for attacking security forces by making IEDs.

The camp is believed to impart training in preparations for rigging vehicles for suicide attacks and survival tactics in high-altitude and extreme-stress situations. They said that at the time of the attack, Maulana Yusuf Azhar Mufti Omar, Maulana Jawed, Maulana Abdul Ghafoor Kashmiri, Maulana Aslam, Maulana Ajmal and Maulana Zubair were present in the madrassa. All of them are believed to be trainers of the suicide bombers. The operation was called off around 3:30 and in the next half hour, jets were landing safely in their bases.

Hours after the attack, foreign secretary Vijay Gokhale presented India's position: that Tuesday's bombing was a non-military preemptive strike, because its target was not military (nor civilian), but a base belonging to a non-state actor Pakistan has made an integral part of its India strategy.

Former Air Marshal Vinod Patney, who led Kargil air operations, described these strikes as risky but necessary. "We had crossed the PoK border in 1965, 1971 and every time there was a war, except during Kargil. This is the first time we have done so during peacetime," Patney said. "The risks involved in an air strike are being shot down. You can be shot down in the air, you can be shot down from the ground. And for these aircraft, even a small shot can mean a lot of trouble for the pilots. If there is a strategic hit, it can be fatal as well," he added.

The retired Air Marshal, however, believes such risks are calculated and one must often take them in order to deliver the mission. "Nothing is 100 per cent foolproof. You plan and choose the best way forward and then adopt it."

The risk came the next day, when PAF fighter jets crossed the LoC in Rajouri area of Jammu and Kashmir and bombarded three locations around 10 a.m.

Officials here said that one of the three Pakistani jets was taken down. But soon, Pakistanis shot down IAF pilot Abhinandan Varthaman's MiG-21 and took him in custody when he ejected. He was handed back to Indian authorities Friday night at the Attari-Wagah border, bringing cheer across the country. He got a hero's welcome for showing immense grit and grace while in the enemy's captivity.

STRIKE TWO

• 40 Number of CRPF troops that were killed in the Feb 14 suicide attack in Pulwama
   
• 12 No. of Mirage jets that crossed border on Feb 26; backed by  Su-30 MKIs, refuellers, drones
   
• 80km Distance the jets covered inside Pak territory, before dropping bombs in dense forests between Garhi Habibullah and Balakot

A POLICY SHIFT OF SIZEABLE MAGNITUDE

The IAF attack on a well-known JeM camp in Khyber Pakthunkhwa is a policy shift of considerable magnitude. This sends the message that India will not tolerate terrorist attacks with impunity. While official data from the air strikes is awaited, there is no doubt that a strong attack did take place. Nobody believes this will end terrorism immediately. But the action gives notice that India is prepared to push this further. To that extent, it opens up the option of diverse conventional actions well below the nuclear threshold. The US NSA has clearly indicated India’s right to self-defence, while the US State Department’s press briefing has been strongly in India’s favour.
— Dr Tara Kartha, Former Director, National Security Council Secretariat, Government of India

What is the importance of India’s air strikes in strategic terms? Firstly, the Indian public was getting restive and the government was under pressure. Whatever the response, it had to have a degree of proportionality. A general war with massive mobilisation is not something anyone had in mind. The selected option appears to have met that requirement. Secondly, with Pakistan fairly on the mat following global pressure, a military operation had to ensure that the diplomatic traction was not lost. With Pakistan effectively isolated and the international community firmly with India, this may be the time for India to de-escalate. 
— Lt Gen (Retd) Syed Ata Hasnain, Former GOC, 15 Corps, Srinagar

The reported Indian air strikes in Balakotcan be seen as a tactical move to avert future terror strikes on Indian soil. The strategic signalling is clear that India could venture deep into Pakistani territory to retaliate against any misadventures by Pakistan-based India-focused terror outfits. Despite Islamabad’s conventional response to the air strikes, Pakistan will continue to rely on its cost-effective sub-conventional ‘options’ to target India. After the 2016 ‘surgical strikes’, Pakistan-based groups such as LeT and JeM increased attacks on Indian security forces in J&K. So an attack on military installations in vulnerable areas cannot be ruled out.
— Sarral Sharma, Senior Researcher, Centre for Internal and Regional Security, IPCS

In J&K, the armed forces employ a supportive local population base as a force multiplier while undertaking any military option. Actions that further alienate this segment of society will adversely impact operations within the state and beyond. A key question must be asked every time knee-jerk reprisals aimed at a wide section of the state’s population are advocated: Are these people responsible for what happened and will this action further the interests of the country and security forces? It is often forgotten that the chief source of intel remains the local population. Neutralisation of 257 terrorists in J&K in 2018 could not have happened without their support.
— Col (Retd) Vivek Chadha, Research Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA))

February 14

40 CRPF troopers killed as suicide bomber rams a car packed with explosives into bus carrying convoy along Jammu-Srinagar highway in south Kashmir’s Pulwama. Pak-based terror outfit JeM claims attack. PM Modi condemns dastardly strike, FM warns of strong retaliatory action.

February 15

Prime Minister Narendra Modi says a strong reply will be given to the Pulwama terror attack, the worst in the history of the country during peacetime. As a first step of retaliation measure India revokes the Most Favoured Nation status which had been granted to Pakistan

February 16

PM says forces have been given free hand; India announces 200 per cent increase in customs duty on goods imported from Pakistan. US NSA John Bolton asks Pak to crack down on JeM and all terrorists operating from its territory and uphold its UNSC duty to deny safe haven to terrorists

February 17-18

Centre withdraws security to four separatists leaders including Mirwaiz Umar Farooq; security forces eliminate 3 JeM men in Pulwama; four security personnel including a Major martyred in encounter; PM says time for talks has passed; Pak calls back its high commissioner

February 19

Imran Khan offers to ‘help’ New Delhi investigate the attack. New Delhi rejects Pak PM’s offer citing Pak’s track record in probing Mumbai and Pathankot terror attacks’Army says Pulwama attack was controlled from Pak with ISI support; rattled Pak turns to UN to defuse crisis

February 20

India-Saudi Arabia statement calls on countries to renounce use of terrorism as an instrument of state policy. US Prez Trump calls Pulwama attack ‘horrible situation’; Centre withdraws security of 18 more separatists; Pak federal minister Sheikh Rasheed threatens nuclear war

February 21

Cong alleges PM continued to shoot for documentary after Pulwama attack; BJP tears apart claims by releasing PM’s itinerary; Min Gadkari says India decided to stop its share of Indus waters from flowing into Pak; fearing action from Final Action Task Force (FATF), Pak bans LeT, JuD, Falah-e-Insaniat

February 22

BCCI requests ICC to sever ties with terror-backer countries; FATF says Pak made ‘limited progress’ in curbing terror financing; UNSC issues resolution condemning Pulwama attack; govt issues plan to stop water-sharing; Pak says it took over Punjab province HQ of JeM

February 23

Amid incidents of harassment of Kashmiris outside J&K, PM says ‘fight is for Kashmir, not against Kashmiris, who have suffered  the most, country must stand with them’; J&K police crack down on separatist group Jamaat-e-Islami, arrests its local chief Abdul Hamid Fayaz,150 others

February 24-25

Three JeM terrorists killed in an encounter in south Kashmir’s Kulgam district; a DSP and a soldier martyred in gunfight with terrorists; PM says Army has resolved to wipe out terrorists, their harbourers; Hafiz Saeed’s Jammat-ud-Dawah (JuD) re-emerges as Al Madina and Aisar Foundation

February 26

Twelve days after the Pulwama terror attack, Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter planes Mirage-2000 obliterate Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) training camps deep inside Pakistan, in the dense jungles in Balakot. According to sources, 350 terrorists were killed in the pre-emptive terror strikes

February 27

Pak jets violate Indian airspace in Rajouri (J&K); IAF foils attempts to carry out strikes, Pak jets drop bombs on way back, Pak’s F-16 shot down by IAF’s MiG-21, piloted by Wing Cdr Abhinandan Varthaman, who is taken captive by Pak; video shows him being quizzed by Pak forces

India summons Pakistani Deputy High Commissioner Syed Haider Shah to South Block and hands over dossier with specific details of JeM involvement in Pulwama terror attack; India puts diplomatic pressure on Pakistan to release IAF Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman

February 28-March 1

Pakistani PM Imran Khan tells a joint session of Pakistani Parliament that Abhinandan Varthaman will be released the day after, as a ‘gesture of peace’; on Friday, Pakistan hands over IAF pilot Abhinandan Varthaman at Wagah boarder, he receives a hero’s welcome at home