What Donald Trump's inaugural address means for India

‘Guys, there is one Donald Trump, there is one speech’ screamed a Guardian op-ed shortly after Trump took over as the 45th President of the United States. His close-to 17 minute inaugural speech was shorn of the oratory we had become accustomed to expect from a US President over the past eight years. Instead, it was typically Trump - nationalism on steroids -  appealing to his core group of voters in the Rust and Bible belts. If anyone thought Trump would mellow or carry forward from his surprisingly modest acceptance speech shortly after winning the elections, they were in for a surprise.

Like his numerous campaign speeches, Trump painted a picture of gloom and doom, and hope for radical redemption during his reign. The only difference from his stump speeches was that 'I will make the change' was tweaked to project that it is people power that will be the harbinger of the US’ makeover Trump claims he can make happen.

 While Americans will figure out how Trump's 'bigly' claims materialise in reality, his vision for the future is likely to have ramifications for other countries, including India. Taking a stance, far adrift that of conservative Republicans, Trump batted for protectionism saying “Protection will lead to great prosperity and strength". This is the direct opposite of the message of globalisation the Western World has espoused for the past half-century or so. Can Trump really turn the clock back at a time when the world is increasingly getting connected, and collaborations in technology and resource sharing are happening at a micro level? Trump's strategy of America First with its associated mantra of ‘Buy American and Hire American’ reflects a narrow, zero-sum game vision in trade policy, which isn't the case in a co-dependent world.

Will the Trump government crack down on the H1B visa program? India's $146 billion IT industry is heavily dependent on it. Currently the number of applications is more than thrice the 65,000 that Indians get. 86% of the HIB visas given to tech firms go to Indians. Hence any curtailment in this program is likely to hit Indians hardest. Similarly, US companies like Microsoft, Google and Apple are looking to hire extensively from India. The Indian government has laid the red carpet for Apple to make iPhones in India. Will those plans get scuttled now? Trump's opening speech certainly comes as an alarm bell to all the allied sectors which extensively hire quality foreign talent to get their work done. 

The Trump administration has made it clear that it will pull out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership which was a big part of Obama's Asia pivot. US pulling out of TPP effectively makes it toothless and will only help China to exert more influence in its neighbourhood with ambitious projects like OBOR. Trump has nominated some heavyweights in the Defence and Foreign departments. But playing fast and loose with carefully crafted trade deals can play right into China's hand, which will have negative connotations for India. It is perhaps ironic, that when Xi Jinping is promoting globalism in Davos, Trump is advocating protectionism. As White House chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon said, they outlined two different world views, and although he hyped up the speech, claiming it is Jacksonian in tone, Trump runs the run the risk of being seen in the wrong side of history with his rhetoric for nativism. 

Finally, Trump during his inaugural speech pledged to finish radical Islamic terrorism from the face of the Earth. Will Trump actually walk the talk, and cut or completely stop aid to Pakistan, which for very long has used proxies to unleash terror in India. Trump as a private citizen was certainly in favour of it, but then again as President-Elect he was effusive in his praise for India's Western neighbour. If Trump can indeed cut Pakistan's terror funding, and call out its bigotry and doublespeak in international fora, it will be music to the ears of Indian policymakers. For years, the US has done a fine balancing act in Indo-Pak relations. Will Trump shed political correctness and read out the riot act to them? Only time will tell.

Trump's relationship with the Modi government is unlikely to be starkly different from the path laid down by George Bush and Barack Obama. But Trump's policy of America First may upset an emerging and developing economy like India. As Trump said in his speech, the wealth of US middle class has been used to benefit other countries. In the mind of an average American, India and China have been big benefactors of globalisation. Thus, on the economic front, Modi's Make in India may directly clash with Trump's America First policy if a framework for cooperation is not properly laid out. 

For all his broad claims, Trump gave no roadmap of how to achieve them. Many of his plans will hurt the interests, and deep pockets, of Republican donors and politicians. Also, in foreign policy, it will not be a one-way street. The other countries will look to pushback if US decides to exert force. How Trump reacts will establish the leitmotif of his presidency. For now, it is wait and watch for Indians – with both trepidation and hope.