25 seats are in fray in the last phase of the polls.
It's the last phase of the month-long election process in West Bengal or as Mamata Banerjee says the end of festival of democracy in the state. With alliance projected to punch way above their weight, the sixth phase may turn out to be a decider like a true T-20 match. Both sides however believe they have already crossed the magic mark, yet the significance of these 25 seats can't be more emphasised.
CoochBehar and East Midnapore are going to the polls and if past performance is evaluated, TMC should have its easy.
But then again this is no ordinary election. Whether it brings about a change in guard or not, Mamata Banerjee's rhetoric in East Midnapore last week amply shows that she is evidently concerned with the self goals of her party members, the negative perception in the media and also alertness of Election Commission. The alliance which was a fledgling at the beginning has also sensed the chinks in the armour and has upped its ante. Hence the entire equation of the polls need to be looked from that perspective.
But let's see how the parties fared in the past elections:
In 2011
CoochBehar
TMC Cong Left BJP
4 4 1 0
East Midnapore
TMC Cong Left BJP
16 0 0 0
In 2011, Congress and TMC were in alliance. Out of 9 seats, these two parties won 4 each. The Left only won 1. In East Midnapore, it was a complete green revolution with TMC winning all the 16 seats. Hence TMC won 20 out of the 25 seats in 2011.
Now cut to 2014. All the parties contested separately and TMC showed its might in CoochBehar being ahead in 8 out of the 9 assembly segments. In East Midnapore, it was another clean sweep for Mamata Banerjee's outfit. So it was a dominating 24 out of 25 seats for TMC.
In 2014
Cooch Behar
TMC Cong Left BJP
8 0 1 0
East Midnapore
TMC Cong Left BJP
16 0 0 0
In 2016, the Congress and the Left have decided to come together. So let's see how the seats would have stacked up in 2014, adding the votes of Congress and the Left parties.
Popular Bengali actor and TMC MP Dev campaigning (PTI)
If there was Cong- Left alliance:
CoochBehar
TMC Alliance BJP
6 3 0
The Alliance was ahead in Mekhliganj, CoochBehar North and Sitai.
East Midnapore
TMC Alliance BJP
16 0 0
In CoochBehar, alliance would have won two more but the situation would have been the same in East Midnapore. So, TMC would have still won 22 out of the 25 seats.
Surja Kanta Mishra campaigning for the Congress- Left alliance (PTI)
How the parties stack up:
TMC:
CoochBehar is one of the few districts in North Bengal where TMC has a strong organisation. Five of the 9 seats are reserved for SC, and didi will hope that many of her strong outreach programme targeted at backward class will yield some benefit. But what can seriously affect TMC is the infighting in the party unit of CoochBehar.
In East Midnapore, TMC strongman Subhendu Adhikari will look to ensure that party continues its golden run. The entire Nandigram movement which shot TMC back into national limelight after being sidelined into political obscurity following electoral setback in 2004 and 2006 started from East Midnapore. Hence, this is the original fortress of TMC where it still rules with an iron fist. The several rural programmes taken by the government is only expected to reap rich dividend in the largely rural base.
Overall, the party will be optimistic of a near-perfect performance in East Midnapore though it has more than few hurdles in the way.
Cong- Left alliance:
Rahul Gandhi in East Midnapore (PTI)
The Left and Congress together is a lethal combination in North Bengal, and CoochBehar is no exception. The Congress has its own pocket of influence and it will definitely do better compared to 2014, where the overall anti incumbency against the Manmohan govt took a toll there. Among the Left Front, Forward bloc is a major player here. Congress and Forward Bloc has had bad blood in the past and whether the two parties and more importantly the voters would go beyond that to unite for a common cause is the most crucial factor there. United might of the Left and Congress can in fact win majority of seats in CoochBehar.
In East Midnapore though, the situation is starkly different. The Congress is virtually a negligible force there with very little ground support. The Left is yet to revive from the massive erosion in their votebase. Yet there are some positive signs. The party has managed to enter villages and hold rallies where it was virtually 'banished' few years back. The alliance will hope that a latent support from people will offset their organisational weakness and it doesn't face a complete washout in these 25 seats.
BJP:
Rajanth Singh campaigning in CoochBehar (PTI)
BJP is not really a major player in East Midnapore, even though it attracted some traction post 2014 polls. It is a factor in CoochBehar, but mainly as a spoiler. Its vote share from 2014 is likely to go down, but where will those extra votes go is anyone's guess. Interestingly, the party has fielded a Muslim candidate in Natabari constituency. How well Ali Hossain fares will also be an interesting sideshow of this phase.
Overall, TMC is expected to dominate and win the majority of the seats. It will like to bag at least 20 of the 25 seats. The alliance will try to keep it down to around 15, though for that it will virtually need to sweep CoochBehar. They will hope for a silent revolution to offset all mathematical calculations.
The EC which has been the man of the series of these polls will have to ensure that the process continues peacefully on Thursday too. It may just make the difference in the final calculation.
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