West Bengal Elections 2016: All you need to know

From a seemingly mundane election that had Mamata Banerjee firmly in pole position, the West Bengal Assembly Election has taken a dramatic turn. The Left and the Congress have buried their hatchet to come together with the aim of ousting the Mamata government. The Narada sting scandal, which hit the entire top echelon of TMC just before the elections, has further taken the wind out of Mamata's sail.

The collapse of an under-construction bridge in Girish Park area of North Kolkata on Thursday, which resulted in the death of 26 people at the time of writing, became a major national event with the army called in for rescue operations. Though the construction of the bridge started during the Left era, questions are still being asked about why the Mamata administration didn't take cognizance earlier. The Congress and BJP have hit out at the state government.

The events have set up an intriguing clash in the state election which will pan out over the next one and half months. 

Back story

In 2006, when the Left Front under the leadership of Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee won a decisive mandate, many believed that Left was destined to be in power for several years. But in politics, 5 years can be an eternity and a series of movements, like in Singur and Nandigram, led to the erosion of the Left's impenetrable rural vote bank. Mamata Banerjee virtually became the face of the anti-Left movement in the state. After an admirable performance in the 2009 Lok Sabha election, the edifice of the Left rule looked particularly brittle and Mamata gave it a telling blow by stitching up an alliance with the Congress and building up an organisation, which could match the famous (or infamous) Left cadre force.

In the 2011 state assembly election, she finally broke the Left juggernaut after 34 years, with the TMC-Congress alliance winning a 3/4th mandate. Congress though soon broke away from TMC. In all the subsequent elections, TMC has virtually swept the field. It nearly obliterated the Left in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. Now, when it looked like game-set-match for TMC, the Congress-Left alliance has suddenly come up as a big spanner in the works of Didi's well-set plan.

Burning Issues

The West Bengal government will look to highlight its achievements, especially in rural empowerment. Some of the major calling cards of the Mamata government have been the establishment of relative peace and tranquillity in the Jangalmahal and hilly areas of the state. The once volatile Gorkhaland movement has now significantly subsided and the Maoist stranglehold in the tribal belt has been loosened. Schemes like Kanyashree (for women empowerment) have had some positive impact. The GDP growth rate of the state is also impressive, surpassing the national average.

PTI

On the downside, due to Mamata Banerjee's rigid land acquisition policies, industry hasn't really gotten any filip. It has been a difficult phase for the state and even Finance Minister Amit Mitra, who was once part of the corporate echelon, hasn't managed to do a course correction. The opposition is always eager to point out this lacuna, alongside their allegations of a reign of terror unleashed by the Mamata Banerjee where the police act as a silent or, in some cases, a willing accomplice. The Saradha scam, in which the names of several top TMC leaders surfaced, was also touted to be a big electoral issue. But sadly for the Opposition, it has had very little impact so far.

However, the Opposition is hopeful that the Narada sting video will puncture a hole in Didi's credibility. TMC, for its part, has rejected the sting where several of its leaders were seen taking bribes. Whether this tactic of brazen denial will prove costly, we'll only know on May 19.

Phases of Assembly polls

West Bengal Elections will be held in six phases. Polling for the first phase will kickstart on April 4, which will continue till April 11. The subsequent phases are on  April 17, 21, 25 and 30, with the last phase to be held on May 5.

Major political parties

Trinamool Congress (TMC)

The party is fighting in all 294 seats. Mamata has mainly kept the same batch of people who contested the last elections. To beat any anti-incumbency, Didi is campaigning from place to place, stating that she is the de-facto candidate in all seats and that people should look at the positive work done by her government. TMC is expected to perform impressively in South Bengal. Some of the prominent leaders fighting are Subrata Mukherjee, Bobby Hakim, Partha Chatterjee and Shovan Chatterjee, among others. How recent incidents, such as the flyover collapse, affect the party is something we will have to wait and see.

Left Front

The Left will be fighting in 209 seats in total. It has looked to inject new blood by fielding fresh faces in many constituencies. The effort is to project to voters that the Left has learnt from its mistakes and that they have a new batch of leaders eager to rebuild the party. The charge will be lead by Surja Kanta Mishra. Some of the prominent leaders also contesting are Ashok Bhattacharya, Manash Mukherjee, Sujan Mukherjee, among others.

AFP

Congress

The Congress has essentially shrunk to a party with influence in just three districts of West Bengal. With the Left looking for a comeback, Congress will try to get some of its mojo back in South Bengal, where its entire vote share has been usurped by the TMC. It has effectively rolled a dice by pitting firebrand leader Deepa Dasmunshi against Mamata Banerjee. Deepa may lose but the goal is to bring that momentum to other winnable seats where Congress has a fighting chance. 

BJP

The BJP got 17% of the votes in the 2014 general elections and there was a possibility of the saffron party emerging as a potent alternative in the state. But with alliances shaping up, BJP has been effectively squeezed out. Factionalism within the party and the presence of a new state chief just months before the elections haven't really helped their cause. It is likely that BJP will remain a footnote in this election.

Who will have the last laugh? 

All surveys so far have predicted that TMC is slated to win the elections. But the gap in vote share between the ruling party and Cong-CPI(M) alliance is extremely thin. If the alliance can properly work on ground and if there is an effective transference of vote (Left voters supporting Congress and vice-versa), an upset cannot be completely ruled out. In the Lok Sabha elections. TMC got 39% votes, Congress 9% and CPI(M) got 30%. But the fact that CPI(M) and Congress fought separately led to a landslide for TMC. That scenario may change completely this time. 

The Election Commission has greatly heightened security in Bengal, where allegations of vote loot have been rampant. Overall, Mamata starts as the favourite but the alliance is breathing down her neck. It might well turn out to be a photo-finish.