He came, he connected, he conquered.
His image staring down from posters, his words reaching out directly to the people and his narrative of development-demonetization tugging at the hearts of the poor, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has almost single-handedly delivered victory in Uttar Pradesh, reinstating the Bharatiya Janata Party in the state after 14 years.
Given the absence of any chief ministerial face, it was Modi as the BJP's main campaigner and protagonist who turned the story of the elections, bagging for his party 312 seats and making it a preeminent force in the country’s most populous state, two years before the 2019 parliamentary elections. Modi was the face of the BJP in UP and Uttarakhand, the two states which the party has swept, surpassing its own expectations.
He did not depend on the remnants of the 2014 wave, when the BJP swept Uttar Pradesh, winning 71 of 80 Lok Sabha seats, but created a new one by projecting himself as the messiah of the poor. Using the gamble of demonetization, which gave him the image of an anti-corruption champion, Modi played the inclusive card, altering the image of his party and the political discourse. In the past, it was Congress's Indira Gandhi who had galvanised the electorate around the plank of “garibi hatao”.
The BJP's dependence on Modi was total. Sensing this, the party scaled up the number of his rallies from around 10 through the seven phases to two in each. Finally, the Prime Minister ended up addressing 23 rallies in UP alone, ending his campaign in his own Lok Sabha seat of Varanasi, with two road shows and two rallies. The BJP captured all the five Assembly segments of his Varanasi seat.
“We are voting for Modi, not BJP." That was the familiar refrain through the election process in Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Modi became the BJP's face in the absence of a chief ministerial candidate, as the cadre-based party gave in to a personality cult. This has happened earlier in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and Bihar, and is a strategy the party could replicate in states where it did not have a strong leader. Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will be Modi's next test.
Realising that his party could fail to win an election dictated by caste equations, Modi took the narrative beyond it to development, corruption and the poor. With BJP chief Amit Shah crafting a strategy revolving around Modi and reaching out beyond the traditional vote base of upper castes and Banias, the party won over the allegiance of the non-Yadav OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits.
Shah described the election as the biggest victory for a party in the state and said the "poor, underprivileged and Dalits had supported Modi's leadership.... He ensured the schemes reached them."
Modi’s Twitter account was silent in the morning and his schedule had no official programme, as the BJP offices in Lucknow and Delhi resonated with celebrations.
For Modi, UP was also the biggest battle on the road to 2019. After the BJP faced humiliating defeats in Delhi and Bihar, UP was the much-needed elixir to revive Modi's confidence ahead of the next Lok Sabha polls.
At the same time, winning the state could pose a daunting challenge for the party two years later. The BJP would be in power at the Centre and state besides having 71 MPs in UP. Expectations have soared after Modi fired up a class war post-demonetization, raising hopes of the poor. By 2019, the BJP would be expected to deliver on its promises. There’ll be no excuses, no one to blame and also the challenge of retaining 71 MPs in UP. According to sources, the BJP was unlikely to fail in delivering and this could help it in 2019.
Realising that his party could fail to win an election dictated by caste equations, Modi focused on development, corruption and the poor. Midway, however, at Fatehpur, he did stray from his themes, giving in to the temptation of striking a chord with the majority to counter the minority card of the Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party.
As the election moved from west to east, Modi wove in kabristan, Holi and Diwali into the development narrative.
It was a script that clearly worked.
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