Uri attack: Will the pre-2014 Narendra Modi please stand up?

"Pakistan ko usi ki bhasha mein jawab dena chahiye, ye love letter likhna band karna chahiye" ( We should answer Pakistan in their own language, stop writing these love letters) – Narendra Modi  in an interview before 2014 polls

Twitter is full of such similar angry rhetoric from the Gujarat strong man, sentiments expressed at various crucial junctions targeting the ruling UPA regiment, where he promised decisive leadership vis-a-vis Pakistan. 2 years and 5 months down the line as PM of the country, in a post Una and Pathankot scenario, geopolitik reality may be finally catching up with Narendra Modi. The death of 18 valiant young men has suddenly put his leadership under the spotlight and this incident will test his mettle as a PM and probably will determine his legacy vis-à-vis foreign policy something which he has made the cornerstone of his tenure.

Some bold steps proposed by Modiji in an interview sometime before May 2014 pic.twitter.com/grHgftAyJn

— The-Lying-Lama (@KyaUkhaadLega) September 19, 2016

Modi’s Pak policy till now has been fluctuating and ill-defined. Like every PM, Narendra Modi too believed that he can crack the Pak riddle to cement a lasting legacy. The massive mandate buoyed him to go out on a limb to invite Sharif for the oath-taking ceremony. He followed it up with the birthday visit late December last year when he took an impromptu detour to Pakistan while coming back from Afghanistan.

He also gave a Pakistani team access to the Pathankot airbase after the attack. But all of it ended in disaster. Nawaz Sharif under domestic compulsion and army coercion has only hardened his line. When it came to cross-border terrorism Pakistan continued to live in denial  (or pretended to) despite clear-cut evidence to the contrary.  They have also tried to blow up the Kashmir issue and the death of Burhan Wani was hailed as sacrifice of a martyr by the top military and political regime of our neighbour.

The brutal attack on Indian forces by Jaish terrorists backed by a Pak deep state shows that it is continuing its policy of bleeding India by a 1000 cuts. But how can India respond to it? Pre–Uri, India’s response to Pakistan’s Kashmir rhetoric was opening a new front in Balochistan. While that is a long game, the fierceness of this attack where the toll may well rise over 18, has raised demand for swift retributions. Yet as we all know, offensive and inevitable counter-offensive raises threat of rapid escalation, which can be potentially catastrophic as both India and Pakistan are nuclear nations.

Manmohan Singh realised that after 26/11, and despite mulling over several options including that of surgical strikes on terror camps operating from PoK, military option was ruled out. But can the current regime afford to show such a tepid response? It promised a bold, muscular Pak policy and the core voter base will hope that deeds match the words spoken. In the last 24 hours, PM has said that perpetrators of the attack will not be spared. Rajnath Singh has dubbed Pakistan as a terrorist state and Ram Madhav, known as a crucial conduit between BJP and RSS has raised the pitch demanding a jaw for a tooth. The reports coming from the Cabinet Committee of Security meeting though is sober. It is looking for possible political consensus before planning any possible offensive. Some sources are reporting that PM is keen on a 'visible response'.

There are multiple options India is looking at. The option of getting Pakistan diplomatically isolated has been tried in the past with various amount of success. With USA increasingly getting frustrated with the Pak establishment, diplomatic isolation is a feasible idea except the fact that China will look to veto it to further their agenda. The same goes for economic isolation in places like WTO. India can revoke the Most Favoured Nation status given to Pakistan, but is unlikely to have any lasting damage.

Most experts have advocated for surgical strikes to break terror instruments in Pak-occupied Kashmir to send out a message. While that would be definitely look good, but possible and likely retaliation can’t be ruled out. Does Modi have a national mandate to take such arduous steps? While many may like to live in denial, the Kashmir situation is part of the larger conflict against Pakistan.. The hostility of a section of people of the Valley towards the Indian state gives Pak a moral high-ground,some legitimacy to butt into Indian affairs. As Mehbooba Mufti said, Modi can solve the problem. But it will need political bravado, out-of-the-box thinking and possible electoral backlash. A greater autonomy for the state within the Indian constitution can be a possible solution. In the long-run, some peaceful mitigation of the Kashmir issue can go towards blunting Pakistan’s edge.

Many experts have pointed out that Indian army’s resources aren’t in the best shape, the air force suffering from shortages of modern tech. These factors obviously will play in mind of our security and political establishment when discussing the pros and cons of what response India should give. As ex- PM Manmohan Singh said, we can’t choose our neighbour. He decided to brazen it out during his term, never getting into confrontation mode with Pakistan. Modi may not have the leeway as his past assertions will continue to haunt him. How he can keep his credibility without forgetting geopolitical realities will decide India’s eventual response. He has to really walk on thin ice here.

But there's a silver lining in all this. Pakistan's doublespeak over the years has finally been exposed. It's evident that there's no going back as BJP Union Minister Ravishankar Prasad pointed out 'ties will be never the same again'. All the early noise from the high-level meet on the Uri attack indicate, that this time it will be a different response. At a high-level meet, Modi chaired a meeting in which he said he wants clear evidence of Pakistan’s complicity to be presented to global fora including UN General Assembly. They want to nail Pakistan on a global stage and also ‘diplomatically isolate’ Pakistan. Sources claim that the general belief was that India ought to avoid a knee-jerk reaction and will take short- and long-term implications into consideration. MOS Home Kiren Rijiju told reporters: “Everything is in front of the people. We must not give much attention to Pakistan’s reaction. We will take our steps carefully.”  Whether the Modi govt can expose the Pakistani state's duplicity on a global stage is something we will have to wait and see. Because this time merely saying kadi neenda or promising that Pakistan will get a 'befitting reply' is just not enough. As the BJP slogan in 2014 went: 'Janta maaf nahi karegi'.