Mayawati can upset possibility of a strong SP-Congress show.
BSP is our main competitor in the first two phases, and SP-BJP in the later phases, said Amit Shah shortly after end of the first phase. But numbers from the past elections in 2012 tell a different story. BSP won 18 seats,while the SP was dominant in the 67 seats going to polls on Wednesday, winning an overwhelming 34. Its alliance partner Congress won 3. Not only did SP win convincingly, their margin of victory in at least half of the seats were in double digits, giving it enough room for attrition and anti-incumbency.
Then why is Amit Shah determined to prop up BSP as its primary opponent in the 11 districts of Saharanpur, Bijnor, Moradabad, Sambhal, Rampur, Bareilly, Amroha, Pilibhit, Lakhimpur Kheri, Shahjahanpur and Badaun which constitutes the Rohilkhand and Tarai regions. The answer lies in the fact that there is significant amount of Muslim population in the districts of Rampur, Moradabad, Bijnor, Amroha etc. A split in Muslim votes will help BJP which has a significant support base among the upper caste population and the non-Yadav OBCs.
Mayawati supporters (PTI)
After phase one, almost all parties have made tall claims about how they swept Western UP and claimed the leher (wave) is with them. But ground observers are almost unanimous on one point that BSP has done much better than all pre-poll surveys predicted. Mayawati with her sustained campaign and a dedicated voter base has managed to find traction. But will it be enough to propel Behenji to the Lucknow throne? The party has gone all out to woo the Muslim votes but that may not be enough to pick up many seats.
Akhilesh- Rahul campaigning (PTI)
The Muslim equation of voting tactically to prop up the candidate most likely to defeat BJP may divert a major chunk of votes to SP-Congress alliance. The strongman from Rampur, Azam Khan and his son are in contention in this phase. Azam is easily the most well-known Muslim face in UP and is likely to sway a significant amount of votes for the alliance. Congress isn't a big player in north-west UP except in isolated pockets and it would hope that its core voters also support its alliance partner SP. Rahul Gandhi has campaigned extensively and has tried to make this election a referendum of PM Modi's work and demonetization, mostly shying away from the state government's achievements.
For BJP, the party is banking on the charisma of PM Modi to upset the social engineering done by other parties. Modi on his part has taken the bull by its horn by campaigning in some of the SP strongholds like Badaun, Lakhimpur Kheri and Bijnor, where he highlighted several lacunae of the Akhilesh government especially on the law-and-order front. Other prominent leaders who have campaigned for BJP extensively in this phase are Union Minister Santosh Singh Gangwar, state BJP President Keshav Prasad Maurya, who are looking to mobilise the non-Yadav sizeable OBC vote.
Varun Gandhi has largely stayed away but Maneka Gandhi has campaigned in the BJP bastion of Pilibhit. BJP will be surely looking to increase from their abysmal tally of 10 seats out of 67 from five years back. If Amit Shah is to believe the party is confident of 90 seats in two phases, and that means winning almost close to fifty percent of the seats. It looks a long shot currently, but an undercurrent for PM Modi can get them close to that tally. All said and done, a resurgent Mayawati in the second phase may be the best hope for BJP to stop Akhilesh Yadav in his tracks.
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
 "Narendra Modi")
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
)
)
)
)
)
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}
){kind=small}