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UP Elections 2017: Akhilesh may have won the pari'war' but the real war is far from over

Internal conflict and strong opposition may unsettle incumbent CM Akhilesh Yadav.

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In politics, a week is an eternity and Akhilesh Yadav will certainly vouch for that. The Samajwadi Party which was on the brink of a vertical split, has got a new lease of life thanks to the Election Commission’s pragmatic decision.

By giving the 'Cycle' to Akhilesh and virtually asking Mulayam to take a walk, the EC has respected the popular sentiment within the UP's ruling party. The ageing patriarch has the limited choice of either falling in line or facing an ignominious end to an illustrious political career. Akhilesh may have won the internal battle, but the real war in Uttar Pradesh is far from over. Here are some of the challenges Akhilesh is likely to face.

Stitching up an effective alliance: 

The elections are less than a month away and the SP has just begun talks with Congress and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD). While Congress will help in consolidating the upper-caste votes and RLD with pockets of influence in western UP can give the ruling party an edge, there will certainly be bickering on the streets within the parties.

The SP and the Congress have many mutual strong seats where both parties will fancy their chances. Hence there will be hectic parleys for those specific seats. The teething problems such a nascent alliance will face might make it hard to get the required votes even after accumulating a large social base under one umbrella.

Problem of dissidents

For Akhilesh, this is a two-pronged problem. Even if Mulayam decides to bury the hatchet, many of Shivpal's associates are likely to miss out on tickets. Also, some influential leaders in both the Congress and SP will miss out on tickets owing to the alliance, which means lesser number of seats for individual party members. 

It is likely that many such local leaders will contest as independents to upset the applecart of their parent party. In a multi-party contest like UP, rebel candidates taking away even a fraction of votes can lead to defeat. How well Akhilesh and his cadres handle the inevitable rogue rebels may determine if he is re-elected as CM or not.

Mulayam's Muslim jibe at Akhilesh

During the family fight, a disgraced and dispirited Mulayam Singh, played the last role of the dice by claiming that Akhilesh hasn't done enough for the Muslims. Mayawati is expected to aggressively leverage this comment to wean away the minority votes from SP. The key to SP's electoral success has been the confluence of the Muslim and Yadav vote bank and any erosion to that may severely jeopardise their chances.

Uneven development in UP

Being the incumbent, Akhilesh's own performance will be up for scrutiny. The degrading law and order situation, the corruption in the system and the general sloth in the bureaucracy will all come to haunt the chief minister. Questions will also be raised if the CM can finally be his own man after virtually running a government in collaboration with his uncles and father in the first term. While the UP CM may have come out unblemished in the EC war, on the campaign trail to defend his legacy, he may have to criticise his family again, sparking a fresh row within the quarrelling Yadav clan.

Stopping the rampaging BJP

Last but definitely not the least, Akhilesh will have to face the entire electoral might of BJP's well-oiled machinery led by none other than PM Modi. In 2014, BJP blew away SP in Uttar Pradesh.

But the situation is slightly different now. The saffron outfit, like it was in Bihar, is handicapped by the lack of any credible state level face and is piggybacking entirely on Modi's charisma to sail through.

However, Akhilesh is neither a development messiah like Nitish nor does he have an inclusive caste alliance that Lalu and Nitish stitched up. Nitish also managed to effectively put Congress vote in one basket. In Bihar, Congress has been a footnote for decades. However, in UP, Congress started the campaign and then they are leaving it midway. How the chemistry between Akhilesh and Rahul works will determine the ground support from the Congress cadres. 

Hence Akhilesh's task is tougher. He would like to believe that the alliance and his new-found aggression will be enough to neutralise the anti-incumbency and pro-Modi wave. 
How well he micro-manages each constituency, even those where allies are fighting, will be the key to success in this winner take all tambola. Akhilesh may have got a headstart but the game is just beginning. Modi and Mayawati are not going to give him a free pass. 

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