'Weak-players' of 2017 suddenly look strong and 2018 will be a totally different political ball-game for the political parties in Tamil Nadu.
The result of RK Nagar bypoll seems to have upset the equations Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was trying to foster with major players in Tamil Nadu politics.
AIADMK's factions led by E Palaniswami (EPS) and former Chief Minister O Panneerselvam (OPS), have suffered a heavy blow as TTV Dhinakaran, who was sidelined from the AIADMK by the EPS-OPS camp, had the last laugh. Now, Dhinakaran's claim that VK Sasikala's team is the real heir to the legacy of J Jayalalithaa gets a lot more credence. Voters have given Dhinakaran camp the mandate to rule RK Nagar assembly seat which fell vacant after the death of former Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa last December.
Now, BJP-- which apparently played a major role in EPS-OPS coming together to fight Sasikala's influence on AIADMK--can't really keep a distance from Sasikala camp. Well, there are no permanent friends or permanent enemies in politics.
First 2G verdict, now RK Nagar game changer
After 2G case verdict that declared former telecom minister A Raja and another Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) leader M Kanimozhi not guilty, many political experts started commenting on possible BJP-DMK alliance in the run-up to Lok Sabha elections 2019. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's meeting with DMK leader M Karunanidhi in November last month gave some credence to the speculations that something big was taking shape between the two parties. Though DMK leadership in November denied any possibility of coming together for Lok Sabha polls, and also after 2G verdict DMK announced its strong affiliations with Congress party, most political observers believe that a lot could change in the coming months and it was too early for BJP or DMK to take a final call on possible alliance issues.
2G case verdict has lifted the moral of DMK cadre and the image of the party. DMK working president MK Stalin claims that the 2G case verdict has proved that there was no wrong done. Now RK Nagar result is a big setback for DMK as N. Marudhu Ganesh of DMK even lost his deposit. In a state where emotions and legacy matter a lot, BJP needs to assess real clout of DMK even after the death of Jayalalithaa, whose legacy can still stir up a political storm in Tamil Nadu.
Burry the hatchet with Dhinakaran
This is going to be tough for BJP as Dhinakaran has accused BJP of being behind the sudden revival of old corruption cases against him and the efforts to whip up allegations of trying to distribute money to voters and 'buy the party election symbol'. Political commentators saw BJP trying to alienate 'tainted section' of the AIADMK, especially taking advantage of the speculation that 'Jayalalithaa was not provided with proper medical care'. But now that people of RK Nagar assembly have shown their trust in Dhinakaran and Sasikala, BJP will have to make efforts to bring about a merger of all the warring factions of AIADMK. As it appears, Jayalalithaa legacy can override all other concerns of the voters, BJP would do well to consolidate the political capital and bury the hatchet with Dhinakaran.
BJP leader and Rajya Sabha MP L Ganesan has already pitched for the unity of AIADMK and Dhinakaran's camp. "Two candidates who had sought votes in the name of late CM Jayalalithaa have secured over one lakh votes. Actually, Jayalalithaa has won in RK Nagar. So, AIADMK leaders have still time to rethink on unity," Ganeshan said.
Rajinikanth, Kamal Haasan factor
2017 was politically tumultuous for Tamil Nadu which saw AIADMK not able to put its house in order, leading to a political vacuum in the State. Rajinikanth and Kamal Hassan appear to be gearing up to play a major role in the politics of Tamil Nadu. But, both of them have not shown any affinity towards BJP recently. On the contrary, Kamal Hassan's comment, 'saffron is not my colour', makes his stand clear on many issues. Kamal Hassan has even said: “In the past, Hindu right-wing groups would not indulge in violence. They would hold a dialogue with opponents. But now they resort to violence,”.
So,as we approach 2018, BJP needs to slog a lot to make sense of all that has changed so fast recently. 'Weak-players' of 2017 suddenly look strong and 2018 will be a totally different political ball-game for the political parties in Tamil Nadu.
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