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The Whimper of the Dragon: New Delhi's response has rattled Beijing into 1962 hysteria

China believed India wouldn't dare a face-off with it in Bhutan, a third country's territory. New Delhi's response has rattled Beijing into 1962 hysteria. But China must realise that India of 2017 — though still committed to peace and resolution of all disputes through dialogue — is radically different today

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A Chinese soldier next to an Indian soldier at the Nathu La border crossing between India and China in Sikkim
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Tension between India and China had been building up over the past two years, with Beijing vetoing UN sanctions against JeM chief Masood Azhar, blocking New Delhi's entry into the elite Nuclear Suppliers Group, and aggressively pursuing its economic corridor that runs through PoK. Beijing kept fuming at New Delhi's public embrace of the Dalai Lama. India's military ties with the US and Japan also left China worried.

But a serious turn came on June 6, when a Chinese patrol demolished an Indian bunker at a rare tri-junction where the borders of India (Sikkim), China and Bhutan converge. Chinese troops entered the plateau — called Donglong by China, Doko-La by India and Doklam by Bhutan — to build a road in Bhutanese territory. The road would give China greater access to India's strategically vulnerable Siliguri corridor that links the seven north-eastern states to the Indian mainland. Bhutanese soldiers confronted Chinese counterparts and asked them to return. On June 20, Bhutan also registered a diplomatic protest.

Indian soldiers came down from Doko-La post in coordination with the Bhutan government. While the Bhutanese have gone out of the area, the Indian and Chinese armies have remained locked face-to-face, reinforcing troops and calling each other to back down. In 2012, India and China agreed that the tri-junction boundaries would be decided in consultation with the countries concerned. India has accused China of trying to violate the status quo through road-building. China has blamed India for intrusion into its territory.

Both countries have been unable to agree on their 3,500-km border, over which they went to war in 1962. On April 15, 2013, Chinese troops camped in Ladakh. Indian soldiers set up their own camp around 300 metres away. The stand-off continued till May 5. In September 2014, a similar face-off in Ladakh lasted 16 days. Again in March 2015, Chinese troops came to north of Ladakh twice in a week. But they were thwarted.

Why the current stand-off is different

It's the rhetoric from Beijing. Chinese ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui has said that India has to "unconditionally pull back troops" for peace to prevail. Chinese state media has reminded India of 1962, declaring that if India "stirs up conflicts it must face the consequences of all-out confrontation with China.

Foreign Secretary S. Jaishankar has, however, maintained that New Delhi is engaged with Beijing in defusing tension through diplomatic channels. But Bhutan's involvement in the latest stand-off has raised a bigger question: Is India capable of protecting the interests of its smaller neighbours? "Any leniency at this moment will forever demonstrate that smaller neighbours cannot rely on India," says an official.

Beijing has said that India has no right to interfere in the China-Bhutan boundary issues. India, however, is averse to a separate deal between China and Bhutan. It insists on a comprehensive settlement of the border dispute that includes all three countries.

History of boundary rows

When Britain brought the Jammu and Kashmir Territories within its Empire in 1846, it also acquired a boundary problem with China. When, a century later in 1947, the State of Jammu and Kashmir acceded to India, the new republic inherited that problem which it could either ignore or face headlong and resolve by active negotiations. According to commentator AG Noorani, the Sino-Indian boundary problem developed into a boundary dispute early in 1959 over the western sector. China formally contested the McMahon Line.

Rajiv Gandhi and Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping made a significant beginning in 1988, agreeing to keep disputes on the back-burner and move on to other issues. Thirty years later, the trade between the two countries has grown from a mere $2 billion to $72 billion. Both countries have also cooperated with each other and taken united positions on several global issues such as trade and climate change.

Gandhi had visited Beijing just two years after a serious standoff of Sumdorang Chu near Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh that lasted more than eight months. A mechanism of Special Representatives (SR) — national security advisors of the two countries — was set up to explore the framework for a boundary settlement in 2003. On April 21, 2016, they held the 19th round of discussions.

The way forward

Former NSA Shiv Shankar Menon, who also led talks as SR, believes there was not much for the SRs to do now, as they set up a framework for boundary dispute settlement way back. "It is now a matter of political will from both sides to take a call and settle boundaries," he tells dna.

Menon says there is an urgent need to start talks with the Chinese on maritime security, as free navigation through South China sea is important for India. "The old modus vivendi, which for 30 years kept the peace and helped us arrive at where we are, is under stress now. It's time that we actually evolved that modus vivendi, that framework within which we operate. And we need a proper strategic dialogue between the two of us to actually sort that out," he says.

Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran also believes that the key lies in building capabilities. "We are certainly much better off than 10 years ago in terms of infrastructure on our side, but the other side has been developing more rapidly," he says. Saran says there is a real dilemma for India as it will have to take into account Bhutan's interests as well. On Beijing's reactions, the veteran diplomat argues that perhaps the Chinese were caught off guard by the Indian Army's actions. He apprehends more such incidents, as it has been a successful strategy to penetrate into India's neighbourhood.

But both former top diplomats praise the current government stand showing patience and refusing to enter into any verbal duels. Diplomats agree that the current standoff, if not resolved quickly, has the potential to turn into a full-blown dispute that could have wide-ranging consequences for the region's geopolitics. They describe it as a testing time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's diplomatic skills, who had begun his foreign outreach by touring Bhutan soon after assuming office three years ago. How far he will stay with Bhutan right now and succeed keeping it out of Chinese influence will remain a challenging task for his team.


The latest flashpoint

A rare tri-junction where the borders of India (Sikkim), China and Bhutan converge. It’s called Donglong by China, Doko-La by India and Doklam by Bhutan.

Contentious issues

Beijing’s veto of UN sanctions against Pakistan-based JeM chief Masood Azhar
Beijing’s blocking of New Delhi’s entry into the elite Nuclear Suppliers Group
Beijing’s aggressive persuasion of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that runs through PoK
India’s public embrace of the Dalai Lama and growing military ties with the US and Japan

Recent stand-offs

March 2015: Burtse and Depsang in north of Ladakh, twice in a week
September 2014: Lasted 16 days in Chumur sector in southern Ladakh
April 15, 2013: Near DBO in J&K’s Ladakh. Lasted till May 5

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