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DNA Explainer: Does BJP stand a chance in upcoming Tamil Nadu Assembly polls?

BJP's foray into Tamil Nadu politics after the sudden demise of the late CM Jayalalithaa in December 2016, saw a series of political upheaval in the state.

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After the successful run to the Bihar Assembly elections, its time for the BJP to head towards poll bound state of Tamil Nadu. Tamil Nadu goes to polls in about six months.

To discuss the upcoming poll strategy with alliance partners AIADMK and PMK, Union Home minister Amit Shah is scheduled to visit the state this weekend.

However the saffron party's journey in the Dravidian state will not be a cakewalk for them. While the party plans to conquer the state with its 'nationalist' ideas, for the common Tamilian the land and language have remained inseparable entities.

BJP's nationalist ideas go down well with only handful of urban, upper class sections of the society. 

BJP's entry in TN politics

BJP's foray into Tamil Nadu politics after the sudden demise of the late CM Jayalalithaa in December 2016, saw a series of political upheaval in the state.

First there was a split in AIADMK through a revolt by the then Chief Minister O Panneerselvam. This incident followed by a series of high-profile raids by central agencies targeting top businessmen, bureaucrats and senior cabinet members linked to AIADMK.

And finally the merger of rival factions ensured the ouster of Jayalalithaa’s close aide V K Sasikala and her family from the party.

AIADMK not able to withstand these attacks by a powerful national party gave in to BJP making it their alliance partner ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. However this alliance proved to be a debacle with AIADMK losing 38 of 39 Lok Sabha seats.

But significantly AIADMK fared better in 22 assembly seats where it went alone, winning nine of them and saving the Edappadi K Palaniswami government from losing majority in the house.

In the 2016 assembly polls, BJP had 2.86 per cent vote share, more than what key DMK allies CPI, CPM and VCK had bagged together. Even as the Lok Sabha polls gave a setback to BJP, the party leadership is hopeful of winning at least five to ten assembly seats in the upcoming assembly polls.

The significance of the BJP in the upcoming polls will be marked not by the number of seats that the national party would get to contest in the AIADMK alliance, rather than the number of seats it would win.

Issues where BJP-AIADMK are at loggerheads

On several occasions AIADMK has talked tough with BJP. AIADMK has not allowed the BJP to go ahead with its month-long ‘Vel Yatra’ in the state covering six abodes of the popular Tamil Hindu god Lord Muruga.

Only two days ago, AIADMK mouthpiece compared BJP with Karuppar Koottam, an unheard YouTube channel charged under the Goonda Act for a video hurting religious sentiments of Hindus.

Senior AIADMK leaders have made it clear that no effort to fan communal tensions in the state will be allowed.

BJP becoming more visible

Even as Tamil Nadu continues to be a tough terrain for the BJP with the party still struggling to mark its presence at the grassroots, the party’s visibility in the media has increased manifold in the past four years.

There is no single popular political Tamil TV debate show that goes without a BJP representative these days. Also, several big controversies in the recent past either revolved around BJP or it was the party itself that created it.

The national party has also started investing more resources in their campaigns, which may be much more than what DMK and AIADMK have done on social media.

BJP recruitment drive

BJP has been on a recruitment spree in the state since 2014. In the past years, it has brought to its fold celebrities, bureaucrats, politicians from other parties and even some individuals with criminal backgrounds.

Recently, the actor-turned-politician Khushbu's joining the BJP was a significant event.

Latest in the list could be M K Alagiri, elder son of late DMK chief M Karunanidhi, whom the BJP leadership is actively pursuing even as his proposed new outfit joining BJP could be all about embarrassing Karunanidhi’s family.

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