Tamed tiger, Sharad Pawar play stir up Maharashtra poll-itics

The 42 seats NDA won in the crucial state of Maharashtra, which sends 48 MPs to the Lok Sabha, played a pivotal role in BJP coming to power in 2014. The alliance with Shiv Sena and Modi wave tipped the scales in NDA favour. However, much water has flown under the Godavari. Despite Sena and BJP joining hands again, two plus two in politics may not be four and anti-incumbency, farm distress and four years of acrimonious differences between the ruling allies have made the battle an interesting one in the politically fragile state.

Congress and NCP were helming the state for 15 years before conceding defeat to BJP in 2014 Assembly polls. However, increased defections, losing multiple local body polls and indecisiveness on seat allocations are just a few of the litany of worries that the allies are grappling with. Maratha strongman and NCP president Sharad Pawar's flipflop approach on him fighting the polls and his inability to correct the aspirations of his own family members have added to the turf wars in the opposition stable. To add to the woes is the rebellion of Sujay Vikhe Patil and son of Congress' Opposition leader Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil.

The long stretched agitation for Maratha quota and new players on the block like AIMIM and Prakash Ambedkar's Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi have made the contest even more multi-cornered.

Second honeymoon

After four years of political bickering and differences, February saw traditional allies Shiv Sena and BJP stitching an alliance again. The "united we stand, together we gain" idiom has inspired both CM Fadnavis and Sena chief Udhav Thackeray to burn the midnight oil and design an impeccable campaign to try and repeat the impressive performance of 2014 where the BJP-Sena had swept 42 out of LS seats.

The allies have planned four rallies featuring PM Modi and Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray, and another 12 rallies featuring Thackeray and CM Fadnavis. A joint coordinators' list is prepared to iron out differences in all 48 constituencies and increase the vote percentage. BJP is contesting 25 seats while Sena is testing its fortune in 23.

Shiv Sena chief Uddhav Thackeray with CM Devendra Fadnavis of BJP

Scars of past persist

Shiv Sena and BJP may have sewn up their alliance, but the bitter acrimony between the parties persists. In January 2017, Sena announced it would contest future polls alone on its own merit. Though Sena stayed put in state and Central governments, its leaders would launch a fusillade of criticism at their ally and vehemently rule out a pre-poll tie-up.

The Sena leadership asked some leaders to prepare for a contest in seats that were represented by the BJP. After Sena firmed up an alliance with the BJP, these leaders like legislators Balu Dhanorkar (Chandrapur) and MoS Arjun Khotkar (Jalna) are said to be open to switching parties to contest.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, Sena and BJP leaders admit to scepticism over whether the cadre and supporters of the two parties will transfer votes to each other. Resentment is also brewing in BJP over primacy being given to "outsiders", namely fresh inductees from other parties. A Sena leader said their internal surveys suggested the opposition was likely to improve its showing and win between 12 to 15 seats.

Not so pretty Oppn

Even after the announcement of poll schedule for the 17th Lok Sabha elections, the Congress and NCP are struggling to finalise the seat-sharing to take on BJP-Shiv Sena alliance. Although the duo had started seat-sharing talks with a bang when BJP and Shiv Sena were engaged in verbal duel, they are unable to take decision on some seats from respective quota to like-minded parties including Swabhimani Shetkari Sanghatana (SSS), CPI(M), Bahujan Vikas Aghadi and Samajwadi Party (SP). These smaller parties want a larger pie which Congress and NCP are unable to give.

On the other hand, Congress and NCP have so far failed to lure Prakash Ambedkar-led Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh and Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi to be part of a broader front against BJP-Sena combine as the latter wants 22 seats. Ambedkar has been playing hardball. He had taken objection to Congress' adopting of soft Hindutva, while he feels NCP 'unreliable' for providing outside support to BJP even before the announcement of assembly poll results in 2014.

The Ambedkar-Asaduddin Owaisi-led All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen have been attracting crowds at rallies. Ambedkar's front is likely to divide 13% Dalit votes and 11% Muslim votes causing a severe dent to Congress' traditional vote bank.

MNS chief Raj Thackeray, whose party has a negligible presence in electoral politics, is, however, one of the most popular public speakers in Maharashtra. In an attempt to consolidate the anti-incumbency vote, the NCP is trying to rope in the MNS and set aside one seat, either Kalyan or Mumbai North East for it.

Elephant in the room

The elephant in the room remains the old scourge of caste. After violence across the state by Maratha activists last year, Fadnavis-led government approved 16% quota for Marathas in jobs and education. However, OBCs fear that if these reservations do not stand the test of law, the Marathas will be included in the OBC category, shrinking their pie further.

Though the state has approved a 10% quota for the economically backward in the general category, the Lok Sabha elections will be the litmus test of the BJP's plan to consolidate all non-dominant (Maratha) groups. CM Fadnavis is a Brahmin and Brahmins accounts for smaller numbers in Maharashtra.

Trust deficit persists

Observers say trust deficit between Congress and NCP and poor organisational network at the grassroots are a big negative for both the parties to seal the deal. Congress will contest 25 leaving 23 to NCP with an understanding that they will allot a few seats to like-minded parties from their share. NCP's firm denial to spare Ahmednagar to Congress had created a major rift between the two which led to the leader of opposition in the state assembly and veteran Congress leader Radhakrishna Vikhe Patil's son Sujay to join BJP.

Moreover, NCP chief and former union minister Sharad Pawar's U-turn in fighting general election from Madha seat has demoralised the party rank and file. There are few takers for Pawar's argument that he opted out to give chance to his grandson Parth from Maval constituency. However, observers cite that Pawar was perturbed over rising factionalism and infighting in the party which may have made him strive to continue its victory march. Pawar has never lost elections but won 14 times in an over 50-year-long political career.

As far as smaller parties are concerned, they fear that Congress and NCP may not give a due share in the assembly elections once Lok Sabha elections are over. They, therefore, wanted clarity on their share in Assembly polls even while threatening to walk out of the alliance.

With the time running out, Congress and NCP will have to soon arrive at seat-sharing pact and kickstart campaign when BJP and Shiv Sena have decided to cash in on the Modi government's decision to launch an air strike in Pakistan after Pulwama terror attack. Congress and NCP insiders admit they will find it difficult to counter the nationalism narrative with core issues such as farm distress, job losses and slow pace of economic growth.