Swaraj-Qureshi meeting at UNGA: Can India be cautiously optimistic?

“Politicians like to panic. They need activity. It's their substitute for achievement.”- The ever-so poignant Sir Humphrey made this point a long time ago in ‘Yes Minister’.

The phrase aptly sums up agenda, as we get set for a ‘meeting but not dialogue’ between Pakistani and Indian Foreign Ministers in New York next week. The Indian side agreed to this tête-à-tête after Imran Khan’s earnest letter where he proposed a roadmap of resuming dialogue with India. It plans a gradual scaling up of talks leading to India’s PM visiting Pakistan for SAARC Summit. It needs to be remembered that India effectively scuttled the SAARC summit scheduled to be held in Pakistan in 2016, when it raised the issue of the neighbouring country giving a free pass to terrorists.

Since then there has been a regime change in Pakistan, yet the ground situation hasn’t evolved positively. Almost every day, we wake up to news of Pak proxies either launching a fidayeen attack in Kashmir or resorting to ceasefire violation. Senior Indian politicians like VK Singh, who incidentally was also the Army chief went on record to say that they don’t expect much from Pakistani government, propped up by the Army. While Imran Khan and his foreign minister Qureshi might have earnest words, there has been zilch action to back it up.

 In fact, the brazen act of slitting the throat of slain BSF jawan Narender Kumar is enough indication that Pakistan isn’t really interested in peace. It also issued postage stamps commemorating terrorist like Burhan Wani, hailing them as martyrs.

This - to circle back to Sir Humphrey - is Imran Khan looking for an activity as a substitute for achievement - a convenient eyewash that may help to persuade the Western world that it is serious about turning a leaf. Pakistan with its ramshackle economy is looking for an IMF bailout and dole from the US. As the noose tightens globally, asking them to crackdown on homegrown terror – talks with India can dissipate the pressure considerably. The primarily hawkish Modi government is well aware of this equation, and hence the very measured reaction of agreeing to meet without diluting the fundamental ground rule - that talks and terror can’t go together.

While there is enough to suggest that Imran Khan may be looking to string along the Indian government for its domestic and foreign constituency, it may not be a completely futile exercise.

The Pervez Musharraf episode has taught us that regimes who have the sanction of the Army regarding talks, have often made the more significant headway. India- Pakistan was close to a
working solution about Kashmir as per Wikileaks cable,  and had almost agreed upon way out for Sir Creek and Siachen before Musharraf was ousted from power. All this happened after he orchestrated the Kargil incursion and failed to move the needle in the Kashmir summit.

Imran’s letter lists out all these contentious issues between the two countries and almost as a bitter pill has added that Pakistan is willing to address the issue of terrorism, the pet peeve of the Indian government.

But with elections knocking on the door, Modi government wouldn’t be looking to roll out a dialogue process unless they are handed a solid win. It can’t afford to be the pacifist at a time when the border is agitated.

It won’t play well with government’s vote bank. With Nepal and Maldives making discordant noises, Modi government may not be in a position to postpone the SAARC platform for long. Hence it will probably agree to reengagement among SAARC nations, if not a summit outright. India’s effort to project BIMSTEC as sort of a replacement for SAARC didn’t exactly go down well. Hence a pivot in the relationship with Pakistan and gradually tempering the rhetoric on SAARC may be the need of the hour. Sometimes activities are indeed achievements, especially when there is a baggage of 70 years and counting.