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Second half of monsoon to be normal: IMD

IMD said that as per its forecast, El Niño conditions are most likely to be neutral through the remaining monsoon months right up to 2018 spring season

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Rainfall during the second half of the Southwest monsoon season is going to be normal, that is in the range of 94-106 per cent of long-period average (LPA), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Tuesday. As per IMD parlance, 96-104 per cent is considered normal. Quantitatively, rainfall across the country during this period, between August and September is going to be 100 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of +/- 8 per cent while in August it is going to be 99 per cent of LPA, IMD added.

Till the halfway mark, July 31, monsoon rainfall was two per cent above normal for the country as whole. A week later on Tuesday, it was three per cent below normal. Out of 36 sub-divisions, 24 have received normal rainfall, eight have received deficient rainfall, three have received excess and one has received large excess.

IMD said that as per its forecast, El Niño conditions are most likely to be neutral through the remaining monsoon months right up to 2018 spring season. "Atmospheric conditions over the Pacific continue to reflect neutral ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) conditions. Latest forecast from monsoon mission system indicates neutral ENSO conditions are most likely till 2018 spring season with high probability (80-90%) till end of 2017," IMD said.

Despite the forecast for a normal rainfall, large parts of India are reeling under large deficit, portending drought like conditions in next summer. At district level, the situation remains worrying for Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. At the end of July, only Marathwada region's districts were in the red. But as of August 8, almost entire Vidarbha region, with the exception of Wardha district, and Khandesh region are facing a deficit.

While there is deficit in these states, Rajasthan and Gujarat witnessed unusually high rainfall last month that led to a short duration floods. Mount Abu in Rajasthan received over 700mm in a 24-hour period, a record for the past century.

Meanwhile, in the coming days, northeastern states are going to face heavy rainfall due to strong southwesterly winds. Besides northeast, Bihar and south Peninsular region covering all southern states are also going to witness above normal rainfall.

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