Farming data has shown that scanty rainfall and low moisture has adversely impacted the sowing season and this can translate into another failed crop following a bad southwest monsoon that saw a 14% deficit.
After a poor monsoon, farmers are possibly looking at a lower than normal yield of wheat, pulses and oilseeds as abysmal winter rain and warmer than usual temperatures has resulted in a reduction in the total area sown under Rabi crops compared to last year. As per official data, 541.12 lakh hectares of area was sown under Rabi crops as on January 1 this year as opposed to 567.63 lakh hectares of area sown in 2014-15.
While sowing of wheat has been 5.6 per cent lesser compared to last year, the deficit for pulses and oilseeds is 7 per cent and 12 per cent respectively, according to agriculture ministry data. Farm economist Ashok Gulati said that warmer temperatures and scanty rainfall will certainly hit Rabi yield. "Rain-fed areas of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh will be worst hit. The shortfall in wheat and rice can be plugged but gram and mustard yield be most affected."
Political analyst and president Kisan Jagriti Manch Sudhir Panwar said, "Rabi crops not only need rain but also a particular amount of moisture and low temperatures in the range of 4 degree to ten degrees, which has not been seen currently. The wheat grains in certain varieties may shrivel in size due to warmer temperatures, thus impacting yield."
Farming data has shown that scanty rainfall and low moisture has adversely impacted the sowing season and this can translate into another failed crop following a bad southwest monsoon that saw a 14% deficit.
The northern states of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan in northwest have all recorded rainfall 60 per cent below normal. A string of poor western disturbances -- weather systems that usher in icy winds and moisture build up in upper reaches of India -- weak north westerly winds and warmer easterly winds have been the chief reasons for a warmer and drier winter, weathermen said.
"In December and January, we usually have strong north westerly winds which have been weaker this time while warmer easterly winds have prevailed. We saw an El Nino year in 2015 and it has already caused to a poor monsoon. It is also responsible partially for the warmer easterly winds," said BP Yadav, director, India Meteorological Department.
El Nino is a weather phenomenon that is marked by warmer than average sea-surface temperatures, resulting in droughts in south Asia and flooding near Pacific. Met experts across the globe considered 2015's El Nino as one of the strongest in the last two decades.
Weathermen though added that northern plains might receive isolated rainfall and experience lower temperatures in the coming days. "A fresh western disturbance may bring rainfall in some parts of Punjab and Haryana over the weekend and temperatures are likely to dip in Delhi-NCR too," Yadav added.
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