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Omar Abdullah logs out of Ganderbal for a safe seat

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Seemingly fearing defeat, Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Omar Abdullah on Friday opted out of his family pocket borough of Ganderbal and instead decided to try his luck from `safe seats' of Beerwah and Sonawar of Budgam and Srinagar districts respectively.

Why did Omar skip Ganderbal?
National Conference (NC) seemingly is on a sticky wicket in entire Kashmir as the anger against the party is mounting due to shoddy rescue, relief and rehabilitation of the flood victims. Plus the
party's baggage of anti incumbency is very heavy to withstand anger in the polls.
In the last Parliament election Omar trailed by 2913 to People's Democratic Party (PDP) which polled 13,220 votes against NC's 10,307 votes in Ganderbal assembly segment that form the part of Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency.
Omar, who is also the working president of NC seemingly is not confident of winning Ganderbal though he has been the MLA of the constituency since 2008. Omar has once tasted defeat from the
constituency in 2002 when small time People's Democratic Party (PDP) leader Qazi Mohammad Afzal defeated Omar on his home turf. Six years later Omar extracted a sweet revenge by defeating Qazi again and wresting his family seat of Ganderbal from PDP.

Why Ganderbal is considered pocket borough of Abdullahs?
Ganderbal has been represented by National Conference founder and Omar's grandfather Sher-e-Kashmir Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah and his father and three times chief minister Farooq Abdullah. Till 2002, the Abdullahs had a free run in Ganderbal when Omar lost to PDP for the
first time.

How will the decision impact the cadres?
It is likely to demoralise the cadres of NC since the lead candidate has shown signs of weakness in the face of tough opposition even before the first vote is cast. NC however dispelled the impression that Omar's decision to skip Ganderbal will demoralise the cadres. "Omar sahib's supporters are not restricted to Ganderbal, though it holds special place for the party. This (decision) does not demoralise in any way. In fact this (decision) has been taken in consultation with the workers as a result of party's political strategy", said Junait Mattu, spokesman of NC.

Will change of constituency help Omar to win?
Omar's party has taken all pros and cons into consideration before fielding him from the two constituencies. NC banks on the anti incumbency factor against the sitting PDP MLA in Beewah constituency Shafi Ahmad. Party feels that by accepting the long pending of people to create new new administrative units in the constituency and getting Tosa Maidan firing range vacated from the army will benefit Omar in the polls.
Sonawar has been won by Omar's father before he was elected to parliament. Later Yasin Shah of the party retained the seat though with a thin margin. This time party feels that they can win the seat
again though PDP has fielded a strong candidate for the constituency. "He (Omar) is contesting where both him and party decides is in the best interest of the party. Leaders are not specific to
constituencies. Leaders are those who can prove their mettle from wherever they stand up election. This stands true for all political parties", said Junaid Mattu, NC spokesman.

You vote counts
Jammu and Kashmir assembly elections will be held in five phases from November 25 to December 30 and the counting will be held on December 23. Ganderbal constituency is going to polls in first phase on November 25, while Beerwah and Sonawar segments are going to polls in third and fourth phase on December 9 and 14 respectively.

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