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NCP retains rural base despite anti-incumbency vote

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Despite the tag of corruption, incompetence and overwhelming anti-incumbency sentiment, the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) managed to maintain its vote bank and come out with a creditable 41 seats (as compared to 42 of the Congress).

How did the NCP pull it off? There are many reasons: solid network of milk and sugar cooperatives in Konkan, Western Maharashtra and Marathwada. Most of their seats came from rural regions. In Western Maharashtra NCP won 19 of 70 it contested, in Maratwada 8 of 42, in Konkan 5 and in northern Maharashtra 5 of 36.

"In local body elections, we performed better than Congress. We have very good mass support base in these areas. Besides, our leaders are connected to their constituency. Predictions were that NCP would be decimated in 20-30 of their seats. But we maintained our numbers," a leader said.

NCP is perceived to be a Maratha-OBC party. These communities have significant base in rural areas. More than 20 candidates lost the polls by slender 200-2,000 votes. Many feel if they had fought a strategic fight, they would have won about 60 seats. "BJP's strategic campaign, opinion polls and advertisements attracted 10-15% of the floating votes. It helped them get 20-30 more seats," said an NCP leader.

Leaders feel farmers liked many measures implemented by Pawar during his long tenure as agriculture minister. Also, there was the perception that BJP did not help onion and cotton farmers get good price for their crops. "These farmers were alienated from NCP during LS polls, but realised only NCP could help them. That strengthened our base in Ahmednagar and Nasik," an NCP leader said.

It also managed to cut through the corruption allegations that had tarnished some of their ministers, especially Ajit Pawar. Most of them managed to win because of the rapport they had with their constituencies.

"Ajit Pawar, Chhagan Bhujbal and RR Patil were alleged to have been involved in many controversies, but they had handsome wins. Voters do not desert leaders whom they have faith in," the NCP leader said.

But now, having hitched themselves to what NCP itself once termed the communal bandwagon, their support base would be confused. One reason why they did it might be to prevent any inquiry into cases of alleged corruption. To that extent it might be a survival strategy. But then BJP itself is out to diminish and destroy regional parties. Who knows, NCP itself could be victim of this strategy!

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