World is watching, Modi warns Islamabad on PoK, Balochistan

Addressing the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort on Independence Day, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday inked the shift in position towards Pakistan that he had pronounced in his concluding remarks at the All-party meet called recently to discuss the Kashmir unrest.

Referring to human rights abuses, a first for any Prime Minister, Modi said: "The world is watching. People of Balochistan, Gilgit, Baltistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) have thanked me a lot in the past few days. I am grateful to them."

"The way people from these Pakistani regions have wished me well, gives me great joy," said Modi. "In thanking an Indian Prime Minister, they have thanked the 125 crore countrymen. I want to offer my gratitude to these people."

While a huge constituency in India and many from the Pakistani expat community have welcomed the PM's aggressive posturing, experts of the region's geopolitics are a little cautious.

Terming it as a reaction to the way Pakistan is aggressively reacting on Kashmir lately, AS Dulat, former Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) chief and a veteran in geopolitics, says: "The message to Pakistan is that if you keep meddling in Kashmir, you have to watch Balochistan and Gilgit. It could internationalise these things and internationalise Kashmir as well, which we do not want. Now, Pakistan will also react. The key lies in how to keep the lid tight on Kashmir."

Dulat, however, is not sure how actively India will pursue Balochistan and Gilgit, and in what manner it will help draw benefits.

Strategic affairs expert Sushant Sareen also has a word of caution. "If India supports Balochistan, it shouldn't do it as a quid pro quo for Kashmir but because there is merit in the case. Balochistan's case does have its own merit. It is, in a sense, an occupied territory by Pakistan and there are historical records to prove that."

"Modi extending overt support to Balochistan may have come in the backdrop of the recent Kashmir unrest, but he will have to see how it can provide continued support to Balochistan. It is one thing to give moral, political and diplomatic support, but what can India do to prevent the genocide of Balochs at the hands of Pakistan. I don't know how much leverage India has on that. There would also be problems as far as Iran is concerned because Iran has a Baloch problem of its own and the Iranians would not be very keen to go down that road" cautions Sareen.

Welcoming the PM's remarks as a marked shift that was long overdue, counter-terrorism expert Ajai Sahni says: "It is very important that the shift of perception is now being engineered, and I hope the government will persist on this course. But we should understand that mere rhetorical shift will not make a big difference. In the end, it is the equation of power that will define the broad trajectory of what is happening in Kashmir and what is happening in PoK."

"As the PM has brought this to a visible level, one can hope that there is a strategy behind it, though I am not aware of it. Unless we have solid strategy to back the shift in rhetoric, much of it will be wasted," says Sahni.

India's former high commissioner to Pakistan G Parthasarathy finds the PM's posturing a natural reaction to what Pakistan has been doing in Kashmir lately and has no intentions to back off.

"Balochistan, in itself, has a strong case. It has been illegally occupied by Pakistan and there is historical evidence to it. In principle and by merit, Balochistan needs India's support," says Parthasarathy, indicating that the PM's tough stand may not prove mere rhetoric this time and the change in position may reflect in policy soon.