One year in power | PM Narendra Modi on the diplomacy fast track

Dealing with India's foreign office needs a high-degree of patience, a foreign envoy posted in Delhi said recently. Given New Delhi's track record, many Indians would second him. An agreement with Bangladesh to exchange border conclaves takes 32 years, an MoU to develop the Chahbahar port in Iran takes a decade to seek cabinet approval and so on. But observers believe that things might finally change with impatient prime minister Narendra Modi, shunned by world capitals in the past and now out to put his stamp on the global diplomacy map.

Modi's fast track diplomacy over the last year has taken him and his ministerial colleagues to 115 countries while he himself has averaged about one trip each month, visiting 17 world capitals. All of this has kept mandarins at the ministry of external affairs (MEA) on their toes.

Aimed at developing an alternate route to Afghanistan and Central Asia, keeping in view Pakistan's repeated denial to provide transit access, an agreement on the strategic Chahbahar port has finally been inked. Agreed to in 2003, it was only in 2013, the last year of the UPA government, that the Manmohan Singh-led Cabinet gave its mandatory approval to the port. But, it was only last month in April that road transport and highways minister Nitin Gadkari visited Tehran to formally sign an agreement.

Though many MEA officials attribute the delay to US-led sanctions, this is, of course, not an isolated case where strategic gains have been frittered away by both the ministry and the Prime Minister's Office (PMO), which has been supervising foreign affairs – during Manmohan Singh's tenure and now during Modi's leadership too.

Observers cite Modi's recent visit to Mongolia as another case of this government pushing the foreign policy agenda, perhaps obsessively. It was more than four decades ago in 1973 that India committed to partner development programmes in far-off Mongolia. But while past governments were putting aside a paltry Rs 2.5 crore a year, Modi has gone ahead and announced $1 billion aid to the country. Significantly, Mongolia is perhaps the only country which has allowed the external intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) and the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) to operate and analyse the cyber data traffic to keep tabs on cyber attacks from China against Indian computer networks.

The peripatetic prime minister

Officials say Modi listed his priorities as soon as he took over. The directive were clear -- act east, link west, re-integrate South Asia, and do business with affluent nations. His itinerary is therefore carefully planned by keeping his priorities in mind. Over 100 foreign dignitaries have so far met him, because he enjoys a certain level of curiosity in foreign capitals. During his tours, particularly to China, Japan, US and Canada, he has got commitments of nearly $100 billion in investments.

"Either he is on tour or we are engaged in planning his next destination," was a senior official's cryptic reply when asked what had changed between the UPA and the NDA.

The last year has seen Modi – who as Gujarat chief minister had been denied a visa by several countries including the US – spend a record 53 days outside the country. He may round up 2015 with six more foreign visits, including Bangladesh, Russia and Turkey. In contrast, NDA's previous prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, had made just three visits covering four countries over seven days in his first year in office. His successor Manmohan Singh, though more active in international affairs, spent 28 days outside India during his six visits to seven countries.

Given embarrassments like the government saying in Parliament that it had no idea about Dawood Ibrahim's whereabouts and flip-flops on foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail as well as domestic issues such as crop failure and farmer suicides, the Opposition has had a field day in taunting Modi for his foreign jaunts.

But former external affairs minister Natwar Singh, a key member of the Congress until his fallout with the leadership, believes otherwise. "At the moment, our standing in the world is high -- much, much higher than it was during the United Progressive Alliance-II. The current prime minister is a leader. His immediate predecessor was not. What Modi says carries weight. Never in the past have so many presidents, kings, prime ministers and foreign ministers come to India as in the last 12 months."

Style of functioning

Natwar Singh's only grouse is that Modi has not been taking external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj on most of his trips. "This is an unnecessary departure from established diplomatic practice, not only in India but the world over," he said.

Former foreign secretary Shyam Saran believes though Modi has by and large continued in the direction set by earlier governments, both the NDA led by Atal Bihari Vajpayee and the UPA led by Manmohan Singh. He has, however, introduced some fresh nuances and pursued foreign policy objectives with a vigour and determination that was missing in the past few years. "There is also a difference in leadership style and a greater preoccupation with public image and perception. It may be worthwhile to consider each key element in Modi's foreign policy and gauge the extent of continuity and what, if any, are its novel features," he maintained.

One sign of primacy according to foreign policy is the fact that Modi's day in office usually begins with meeting foreign secretary S Jaishankar or his second in command if he is away, and officials directly under his control.

But all decisions are the prime minister's alone. On crucial decisions like granting e-visas to Chinese and purchasing 32 ready-to-fly Rafale aircraft, the home and defence ministers were not consulted. And there are many instances, where even Sushma Swaraj has been bypassed, critics have pointed out.

Modi didn't take kindly to former foreign secretary Sujatha Singh attempting to question him, officials said. The tipping point came when the Gujarat government invited Danish prime minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt for the Vibrant Gujarat summit. The visit failed to materialise because MEA refused to budge from its stand that no high-level contact was allowed unless they resolved the issue of Kim Davy, a fugitive in Purulia arms drop case. Sujatha Singh is believed to have cited convention and policy to not deal with Copenhagen until it either hands over or prosecutes Davy.

Sujatha Singh got her way and Thorning-Schmidt did not come. However, she soon lost her job to Jaishankar, who was the man behind the breakthrough in the commercialisation of the 2008 nuclear deal between India and the United States, which had been almost abandoned.

Modi's diplomatic acumen will be tested next year, when he may have to travel to Pakistan to attend the SAARC summit. Vajpayee had used the occasion in January 2004, months before he lost elections, to pave a roadmap for settling skewed disputes. That path was followed by Manmohan Singh, but the plan got buried in the debris of the Mumbai bombing.

However, Modi has moved decisively to improve relations with smaller neighbours like Bangladesh, Nepal and Sri Lanka. He has connected directly with the political classes and people in the neighbouring countries and shown the will to resolve long-pending problems with them

Where there are many in the BJP already comparing Modi with India's first prime minister Jawaharlal Nehru, the threats to internal peace and the controversial statements not by fringe elements but by top leaders of his own party are being closely watched in world capitals.

Western ambassadors in Delhi say in confidence that Modi's battle to seek investments and earn goodwill will be in vain if he fails to control elements that threaten minorities and attack churches. History has shown while Nehru was given a world leader status, all his diplomatic gains were nullified by the Chinese aggression and his flip-flop on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. Nehru never recovered from this debacle.

Maybe there's a lesson for the prime minister there.