Narendra Modi will be embarking on a five-day tour to the United States of America on September 25. In many ways, it is a tour of vindication for the Prime Minister after the 2005 episode of being refused a visa to the country, played ad-nauseam in the media for nearly a decade. But now with all those things way in the past and the Obama administration looking to chart an unexplored chapter in bilateral diplomacy, a new beginning in Indo-America relationship may well be scripted.
Narendra Modi is expected to get a rock-star reception by the large Indian-American community in the States, many of whom are fawning admirers of the Prime Minister. Beyond the several opportunities for photo-ops and grandiose speeches, here are 6 things we will be keeping a close eye on.
Will India actively support the US in the war against Islamic State?
There are some reports that US President Barack Obama may seek India's support in the war against jihadi organisation Islamic State, currently reigning havoc in Iraq and Syria. If he indeed asks for help, Narendra Modi will have to figure out the nature and tenor of India’s response, keeping in mind domestic compulsions. It is worthwhile to recall that India didn’t send its men on the ground during the earlier war in Iraq.
Will Narendra Modi announce some special sops for Indian Americans?
A report in a leading newspaper suggested that the PM may announce a merger of the Overseas Citizens of India (OCI) and Person of Indian Origin (PIO) cards. The decision was taken by the Manmohan Singh regime, but was not implemented in reality. The merger would help Indian Americans smoothly participate in activities back home. It could also act as a boost to Modi’s new mission of 'Make In India'.
Media reports have suggested that talks will feature the niggling issues of visa restrictions and movement of professionals. Commerce minister Nirmala Sitharaman has gone on record to say that India wants an early conclusion of the Totalisation Agreement with America. Under this pact, an expatriate in either country need not contribute to social security schemes of the host country. India also has serious issues with the Immigration Bill of 2013 which according to India, is discriminatory to their IT companies. It will be worth watching if Narendra Modi can get some concessions from the Obama administration in all these issues which will certainly bring cheer to his supporters in the US.
Will there be any tangible increase in trade relations?
According to Nisha Biswal, a top American official, the US is looking for a “very substantive and consequential” visit from Narendra Modi. Going by pure numbers, the volume of India-US trade is at $100 billion currently and is expected to rise five fold in the next 10 years. It needs to be seen if the two sides ink specific deals on strengthening cooperation in economic opportunity, homeland, energy securities etc. China and Japan had both pledged to invest a huge amount of money in the Indian economy. The effort on the Indian side will be to strike some deal with the Obama administration on those lines.
On the flipside, Modi in his short tenure has shown some traits of protectionism, especially to counter current account deficit. It is looking to cut down on import of inessential goods. The Modi government has also refused to reverse its stand on FDI in retail. All this is an antithesis to the Obama administration’s views that sees India as a very large market. The Obama government would like to ink a substantial defence deal as India is looking to spruce up its capabilities. Will trade get the necessary fillip after catering to the domestic compulsions of both sides, will be a critical question. A middle ground on the FDI policy looks unlikely, but can be a cherry on the cake or chatni on the dhokla, whichever you prefer!
Will India change its stand on signing the WTO deal?
This looks extremely unlikely, but in July, when India stuck to its position of almost unilaterally spurring the signing of the deal, expressing concern over the effect it could have on its food security programme, it was not taken well by the US administration. Can a middle ground be reached in the impasse, is now the question worth pondering. The Obama administration will certainly hope so. There are talks of an indefinite “peace clause” on food security till a solution is reached. Formal talks about this matter will start later but the summit level meeting in New York can be an apt indicator for things to come.
Have the scars of the Devyani Khobragade incident mended?
Indo-American relations hit a sudden curveball in December last year, over the arrest of Indian diplomat Devyani Kobragade. India had retaliated by expelling one of the US diplomats. The matter rambled on for months, resulting in a serious standoff. The issue was finally sorted out when Khobragade was allowed to leave the US, but it demonstrated how fragile the dynamics of the relationship is, even between two friendly nations. It will be interesting to see if the incident gets featured in any of the talks, so that a similar meltdown in relations can be averted in future.
Will pressure on Pakistan be increased?
Ind-Pak relations continue to be strained with several ceasefire violations in recent months. The perpetrators of 26/11 are still roaming free in the country and the trial in the case is going nowhere. In the Mumbai attack, US citizens were also killed. If the US condemns Pakistan in the same tone with India, preferably in a joint statement, it will definitely put pressure on the country currently battling hostile protests against the elected government.
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