BJP has won, both Haryana and Maharashtra, fair and square. While a simplistic analysis will say that the party just carried on from where they left in the general elections, the reality is quite far from it. BJP took a huge gamble by breaking away from its allies, potentially making hard work of a simple equation. But finally beating all odds, BJP triumphed in both the states, which will not only add to the lustre of the party but also to the aura of invincibility surrounding Narendra Modi.
If one looks closely at both Maharashtra and Haryana, there are some common patterns. In both the states, the BJP has never been a dominant force. It also doesn't have a strong cadre base across both the states. The standard model for the BJP to win state elections in the last decade has been harping on strong leaders and a dedicated cadre base. But unlike in most states where the BJP has won with that modus operandi, the party decided to chart a different path this time around. In the absence of Gopinath Munde, the party didn't have any credible face in Maharashtra. In Haryana too, there was no leader with a mass appeal across the state. The party also didn't have a sound organisation across both states. In Maharashtra, it was always the junior partner to Shiv Sena, and never contested in more than 120 seats. So in many places, the party lacked robust booth level organisation. As for Haryana, it has always played a minor role with very little footprint, especially in the Jat belt. So facing a precarious situation after breaking away from allies, it was left to the charisma of Narendra Modi and Amit Shah to bring the party home. It also had the added burden of some indifferent results in the by-polls which gave a message that perhaps the Modi wave is dying down.
BJP's plan was to replicate and extrapolate the success of the Lok Sabha elections to the Assembly elections by harping on the Modi wave. By doing so, it sought to undermine all the caste and class equations on its head. Going by the election results, it must be said that BJP has to a large extent achieved this by winning an over encompassing mandate. What went in BJP's favour was the anti-incumbency facing the Congress party in both states. The perception of corruption clouding the governments of both the states also aided BJP's cause as Narendra Modi is widely hailed as a non-corruptible person. Modi, by holding 27 rallies in Maharashtra and 11 in Haryana, tried to give the message to the electorate that they can bank on him to provide good governance in both states. He effectively gave the message that who ever will be the chief minister, will be a point-person of him. Many may undermine BJP's success in Maharashtra. But for the first time after 1990, a party has won over 100 seats in the state. In 1999, even after winning in the Lok Sabha elections, BJP failed to grab the initiative to win in the Assembly election. So Maharashtra was an arduous task for the BJP and the party has done reasonably well to stop only 20 short of the magic figure.
In rally after rally, Modi pointed out the schemes rolled out by him. With a weak Congress still smarting from the Lok Sabha defeat, there was simply no force to stop the Modi juggernaut. He ensured that BJP was in a position to be the default alternative to Congress, that is probably on an all-time low. But the risk behind this maneuver was manifold. Had BJP failed to win in Haryana and Maharashtra, it would have been interpreted as a referendum to the government's performance in its first five months. The honeymoon period would have been over and the top leadership would have to think twice before enforcing tough decisions, especially on the economic front. The Prime Minister could have treated the elections in a low-key manner by appearing for a couple of rallies. But rather, Modi kept his reputation on line by going out full force.
Now with BJP registering an emphatic win, it effectively enhances the honeymoon period for the party in power. The economy is looking up and the government has already taken the difficult decisions of hiking gas prices and deregulating diesel. It should ideally push for more reforms in the coming Winter session of parliament. Sunday's win has also given a stern message to other NDA allies, that the balance of power is firmly with the BJP. If parties like SAD continue with their own ways (they joined hands with INLD in Haryana) they may soon be shown the door by Modi. Overall, the verdict emphasises on the fact that the trust quotient between Modi and the people at large is still very high. Common people merely equate BJP with Narendra Modi and give a mandate on his name. The challenge will be to live up to the sky-towering expectations - because the public mind can be incredibly fickle.
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